Wild Nation’s Ridiculously Early Season Predictions: The Atlantic Division
August is almost upon us, which can only mean one thing – its training camp time.
The time in the NHL where there’s hope running through every team’s fan base, except for Toronto’s of course. But, with that hope in mind, it’s time for our ridiculously early season prognostications that will likely be proven to be dead wrong by the second week of the season or just the Ridiculously Early Season Predictions, for short.
We’re going to start with the Eastern Conference this season, namely the Atlantic Division so, let’s get started.
New Jersey Devils – The NHLPA filed their grievance on Thursday regarding Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract and one would assume that, despite their desire to resolve this quickly both sides are digging in for a fight.
Even without Kovalchuk in the fray, however, the Devils remain a much improved team over last season’s with the additions of Anton Volchenkov and Henrik Tallinder on defense and Jason Arnott up front. It could, in fact, be argued that the Devils could be a better all around team without Kovalchuk, as they would have to unload a contract in order to come into the season under the salary cap.
Looking at this team, however, Volchenkov and Tallinder should be upgrades over the departed Johnny Oduya and Paul Martin, while Arnott should give the team a solid second-line center that can pitch in on offense.
While these three players alone might not get the Devils back to the promised land, in the Stanley Cup finals, they will certainly go a long way towards making New Jersey more competitive both in the regular season and the post season.
New York Islanders – The Islanders may find themselves in the enviable situation of having to spend money in order to reach the cap floor this season – something that many teams might relish at this point in the off season.
The problem for the Isles, however, is how do they do that?
With the big fish out of the free agency pond, the Isles may have to resort to multiple signings, which could cut down on the amount of playing time that some of their youngsters would get.
It’s hard to imagine that forwards Doug Weight and Matt Moulson won’t be back with New York this season, so that will take care of some of it, but likely won’t resolve the entire issue, but this is good news for a team that only has seven roster players under contract for next season and 13 restricted free agents coming up.
Another year’s experience for their big time youngsters will be good for the Isles, and they’re headed in the right direction – they’re just not there quite yet.
New York Rangers – As has been the case the last few seasons, the Rangers are an enigma wrapped in a riddle, wrapped in a puzzle.
They have Marian Gaborik who, after countless disappointing seasons in Minnesota, came out and showed that he could shoulder the load and be a superstar in the NHL, but past him they don’t have many players that chipped in offensively.
Then, this off season they made what many consider to be the shrewdest move, signing Martin Biron as a capable back up for a goalie who has never really had a capable back up, but they then went out and signed enforcer Derek Boogaard to a ridiculous four-year, $1.65 million per contract.
So, as it stands now, the Rangers aren’t really much better than they were at the end of last season. Alexander Frolov’s agent has stated that his client is close to a deal with the blueshirts and, if that’s the case, the team could be looking better going into this season.
But, as it stands right now, they’re in the same spot that they were last season, which means that they will likely be on the outside looking in once more.
Philadelphia Flyers – After spending most of the off season pretending like the salary cap didn’t apply to them, they’re now back under the cap by a whole $327k.
After replacing Simon Gagne with Nikolai Zherdev, which was likely a salary shedding move, it is apparent that the Flyers are anticipated increased production from James Van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux and Ville Leino next season, along with what Zherdev brings, to make up for the loss of Gagne’s production.
But the story here isn’t in the team’s offense, but in a defensive unit that could easily be the best in the NHL.
After their defense got embarrassed by Chicago through much of the finals, the Flyers responded by going out and trading for Andrei Meszaros and Matt Walker and signing free agent Sean O’Donnell.
That gives them five defensemen that could legitimately be considered top-five defensemen and two more that are legitimate shut down d-men, plus Oscars Bartulis who appears to now be on the outside looking in.
All of this points to the fact that we could very well be looking at a situation much like the Penguins and Blackhawks faced, of having to lose before you can win.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Let’s be perfectly honest here. You can never count the Pens out of anything.
While they still have one glaring need to address (a scoring winger), the Pens have upgraded their defensive unit which should be a big help for Marc-Andre Fleury.
Zybnek Michalek and Paul Martin give the Pens two more defensemen that can play in any situation and takes the pressure off of Kris Letang and Alex Gologoski on the powerplay and should help in the wake of losing Sergei Gonchar to free agency.
The best news for the Pens, also, is that they have the cap room to address their need for a winger before free agency is out. With the market value for free agent forwards taking a dive, especially with the signing of Nikolai Zherdev, the Pens can more than afford to improve their forward corps.
That, in and of itself, is encouraging news for Pens fans and they should expect to see the playoffs in Pittsburgh once again.
Predictions
Well, now that we’re done with the previews, let’s take a look at how I think the Atlantic Division is going to line up come playoff time this coming season:
1) Philadelphia Flyers
2) New Jersey Devils
3) Pittsburgh Penguins
4) New York Rangers
5) New York Islanders
Through most of the season last season, all five teams were in playoff contention and it should be much of the same this season, though I think that the Rangers and Islanders will fall of towards the end of the season once again and be on the outside looking in. The Flyers, Devils and Penguins, however, should all be back in the dance once again.
Up Next: The Northeast Division
The Minnesota Wild Season in Review Part 5 of 5: Looking Ahead
Well, it’s taken a lot longer than I’d expected, but here we are—part five of my five part season in review.
I’ve looked at the season on a whole, the forwards, the defense, the goaltenders, the management and now it’s time to take a look ahead to what this off season could bring.
The Wild have a long shopping list for this off season and not a whole lot of money to shop with. They currently have 17 players under contract and have restricted free agents Guillaume Latendresse and Josh Harding yet to sign.
Their shopping list will likely include another defenseman and at least one more forward, but likely two, just to be safe.
So, let’s look at what the team needs, shall we?
The first need that the team will try to address, for sure, will be another stay-at-home, shutdown defenseman. With six defensemen under contract and approximately $16.6 million allotted to these defensemen it’s hard to believe that the Wild will go out and spend on a top-flight free agent blueliner.
What I can see, however, is the Wild spending anywhere between one and two million on a defenseman that is reliable, but not flashy—someone that they can pair with their more aggressive, offensive defensemen.
The problem is that there aren’t too many players available with that description for that price tag.
Possible Targets: Milan Jurcina, Brett Lebda, Kurtis Foster
Another need that the team desperately needs is a second line center.
The Wild do already have someone within their organization that they are hoping will fit this bill in Pierre-Marc Bouchard.
The big question about Butch, however, is his health. While he has been cleared to begin light exercising, Bouchard is still experiencing many post-concussion symptoms.
With that being the case, I would expect the Wild to pursue a center looking to spend between two and four million on him.
With the impending departure of Mike Modano from Dallas, there are a few that are hoping for a nostalgic end to the former North Star’s career. In my opinion, that would be a huge mistake for the Wild.
While Modano would be a significant upgrade from James Sheppard, the fact remains that he’s 41 years old and his production has decreased significantly over the past few seasons.
What they do need, however, is a gritty, skilled center to play on their second line between Latendresse and Martin Havlat.
Possible Targets: Matthew Lombardi, Mike Comrie, Brendan Morrison, Chris Higgins
Another player that the Wild will likely look towards is a gritty forward to replace the likes of Andrew Ebbett, Owen Nolan and Derek Boogaard, all of whom will likely leave in free agency.
This is one thing that there are a lot of in this year’s free agent market.
They won’t have to pay a lot for these players, but these players are going to be invaluable to the Wild in the future and General Manager Chuck Fletcher knows this.
With the trade for Brad Staubitz, Fletcher has gotten some of this toughness but judging from how both the Ducks and the Penguins were built, and make no mistake that those teams had his finger prints all over them, he’s not done with this.
Possible Targets: Adam Burish, Raffi Torres, Colby Armstrong, Evgeny Artyukhin
Finally, I’d look for the Wild to take a shot at trying to acquire another top-six forward; probably a winger.
It won’t be any flashy signing like Ilya Kovalchuk, unless Fletcher can work some serious cap magic, but there is a definite need for a player that can score consistently to play alongside Andrew Brunette and Mikko Koivu on the team’s first line.
Again, I would expect the team to go after someone in the two to four million dollar range for this, as it’s going to need to make sense both economically as well as for the team on a whole.
Possible Targets: Marek Svatos, Alexander Frolov, Slava Kozlov, Alexei Ponikarovsky
Whatever the Wild does, there is going to be a sense of excitement surrounding the team come July 1.
It’s Christmas in July for NHL fans and fans in Minnesota are hoping that the Wild come out on top.
Since Hindsight is 20/20, We’re Looking Ahead
It’s not quite official yet, Wild Nation-ites, but it’s all but that.
The Wild will miss the playoffs for the second straight season.
The is still an infinitesimal chance that they could pull it out, but it would involve the Wild coming out and putting together a 5-0 stretch run combined with every single team that they’re chasing tanking.
In other words:
It ain’t gonna happen.
Chuck Fletcher has a long, arduous road ahead of him too, because the cold hard facts have laid out a pretty rocky looking off season, so let’s play some fact and fiction here, shall we?
FACT: Minnesota has approximately $48.2 million tied up in 18 players for next season.
FACT: Minnesota has definite needs to be addressed at forward and not a whole lot of roster spaces or money to do so.
FICTION: The Wild will be able to address their need for a scoring threat in free agency.
FICTION: There are a number of free agents that could fill the Wild’s needs.
Now, before you get all up in arms about this, let’s think this through rationally.
You can cross Ilya Kovalchuk off your wish list. It ain’t gonna happen unless Fletcher can work some sort of cap magic. Kovie wants the league maximum and the Wild don’t even have league maximum type of space.
Patrick Marleau is an intriguing option, but he’s been playing on a line with Jumbo Joe and Heater for most season. It would be a risk and I don’t know that it would necessarily be a risk worth taking.
Alexander Frolov? I don’t know that we want another underachieving European forward.
Tomas Plekanec? If he doesn’t re-sign with Montreal, their entire ownership will likely be run out of town.
Ray Whitney? Not at 37. Olli Jokinen? No thanks. Chris Higgins? Not a chance.
You get the picture.
But, looking forward to 2011, there’s more potential there.
Brad Richards, Joe Thornton, Alexander Semin, Simon Gagne, Martin St. Louis, Patrice Bergeron, Tim Connolly and Michael Ryder are all players that should at least be intriguing for Wild fans.
Will all of them get to free agency?
Probably not. But there’s a good chance that a few might.
So this off season is likely going to be filled with the Wild filling out their roster with role players — players that aren’t going to set the world on fire, but that aren’t going to be bad pick ups either.
This off season, though, I think could be telling of how quickly the Wild will be built into the mold of what Fletcher wants.
Below is a list of what I imagine will be keys to the Wild’s off season:
- Re-sign Guillaume Latendresse.
- Say what you will about his performance this season, but Latendresse has proven that he’s a valuable player. He’s managed to shake just about every single knock that Montreal fans have had against him and has been our best player since coming over in the trade. The problem with this is that you don’t know what player you’re going to be signing. Will you be getting the Guillaume Latendresse that was benched or skated on the fourth line in Montreal, or will you be getting his super-powered alter ego, The Tenderness, who has lit the lamp more times in one season than anyone to wear a Wild sweater not named Gaborik or Rolston? It is conceivable that he’s got contract year-itis, but it’s also possible that the pressure being lifted off of his shoulders is doing wonders for his career. Listening to him talk, I’d say it’s the latter of the two. To be safe, though, I can’t see the Wild signing him to longer than a two-year deal with the promise of more talks to come if he keeps it up.
- Lock Mikko Koivu up long-term.
- This is a no-brainer. While Koivu may never be a 100+ point player (though he could be with the right line mates), he is the heart and soul of this franchise. I would like to see him signed to a Datsyuk-ian or Zetterberg-ian contract, meaning the rest of his career for a reasonable cap hit.
- Hit the trade market
- You’ve no doubt gathered by now that I just don’t believe that vast improvements through the free agent market this season are going to happen. I’m not saying that it’s an impossibility — just more of an improbability. Where the Wild are going to make an impact this off season is the same place that they made an impact this season. The trade market.
Now I know that neither of these three are a huge revelation to anyone. Latendresse are our two top players this season and Fletcher has shown a penchant to making good trades this season. But I’d like to stay on that last one for just a moment.
Trades are going to be made. Plain and simple.
And, given the performance of the team down the stretch, I’d say there aren’t many players that are safe. In fact, I’ll list all the players that I think might be safe from trade.
Mikko Koivu
Guillaume Latendresse
Martin Havlat
Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Cal Clutterbuck
Casey Wellman
Brent Burns
Cam Barker
Greg Zanon
Josh Harding
Now, let me be clear. There are two names on there that are on there due to injury status and not for any other reason. Bouchard and Harding’s stock has got to be at an all-time low, which is one big reason why I think we’ll see Harding back in Minnesota next season.
At forward, Koivu and Latendresse are fairly obvious. Havlat, despite his horrible start to the season, has been pretty good in the new year, with 11 goals and 19 assists for 36 points in 36 games with a minus-four rating and even then Fletcher wouldn’t trade his big free agency pick up this early in the game…Plus, you know, no movement clause. Clutterbuck is, well, Clutterbuck. There’s no way that Fletcher is going to trade Wellman after winning out over 21 other teams. Burns has played his way onto this list over the last couple weeks. Barker was the centerpiece of the Johnsson trade and there’s no way that he’s going to be traded after giving up so much and Zanon…Well…Yeah.
This is to say that, if you don’t see your favorite player on this list you might want to at least prepare yourself for the idea that he’s not going to be wearing the Iron Range Red next season.
I’m not saying that everyone but these ten will be gone. Far from it. There are quite a few players in the organization that I think it would take a killer deal for the Wild to agree to trade (Backstrom and Schultz being two of these), but that being said…I truly don’t think that there are many players that Fletcher wouldn’t listen to offers for.
Overall, the prognosis could be good for Minnesota next season. The team has, legitimately, five top-four defensemen (Burns, Schultz, Barker, Zidlicky and Zanon) and one more that could turn into one if he’s healthy (Stoner). They have one world class goaltender (Backstrom) who will be coming off of a down season (can you say incentive?) and potentially another (Harding) who will be looking to increase his value for his UFA day. Then, at forward they’ll be getting Butch back (God-willing), will have a full season with The Tenderness, and have a young core with a bunch more experience.
They might not be the best team in the league, but they’re a team that 1) is struggling through an injury-riddled season and 2) have had a few players who have not contributed to the extent that they were expected to.
Do we have significant holes?
Without a doubt. But we also have enough on our roster to overcome these holes and become a potentially dangerous team.
While they admit it or not, the Wild management is certainly undertaking some semblance of a rebuild. Our former general manager (who will not be named in this blog) did his best to make sure that his predecessor wouldn’t have an easy job ahead of him, but you can see signs that the organization is headed in the right direction.
Hopefully they have a roadmap so they don’t get lost along the way.
An Early Look at the Off Season Pt. II – The Forwards
In my previous blog, I looked at the situation of the Wild for this coming off season and their impending free agents, both unrestricted and otherwise.
The Wild potentially have six forward spots to fill from within and through free agency. There are a few players in the system that might be ready to step up but, on a whole, the Wild will likely be looking elsewhere for help.
So…
Here…We….Go.
Forwards
Ilya Kovalchuk – LW – 28 – Est. Salary: $11M
The bottom line is that Kovalchuk is the best of the best of this off season. He is exactly what the Minnesota Wild need and exactly what they can’t afford. At least not with their cap situation over the next couple seasons. Kovalchuk would be a dream to see playing alongside Andrew Brunette and Mikko Koivu, to be sure, but with a potential $42+ million already spent on 15 players, it would be very, very difficult for the Wild to fit in a cap hit of $11M for one player.
That said Kovalchuk is the type of player that you make the cap room work for. The Thrashers current captain has scored 40+ goals in five straight seasons, two of which he scored 50+. He is a finisher, plain and simple, and a player that the Wild would love to get their hands on.
Despite the fact that Kovalchuk has only been to the playoffs once (for four games), he has provided leadership to an otherwise leaderless Thrashers team and he has also proven his worth in international tournaments as well, most recently last season’s World Championships in which he had five goals and 14 points in nine games.
Wild Nation Verdict: A dream come true. Kovalchuk would be the finisher that the Wild so desperately need. As it stands now, though, the Wild would need to do some serious finagling with their roster to both fit Kovalchuk AND field a full roster – especially not while he is expecting to make the league maximum. If Minnesota can utilize the loopholes to get the cap hit down to seven or eight million, then it’s doable. If not, you’ll see Kovalchuk playing elsewhere in the league.
Patrick Marleau – C – 31 – Est. Salary: $7-8M
Marleau has had an up and down career, but is certainly well on his way to a career season in what could be his last in San Jose. He is just 11 goals away from tying his career high and he’s topped 25 goals in six of his last eight full seasons (not to mention topping it already this season) and he’s topped 30 in three of his last four.
San Jose will have some difficult decisions to make this off season and losing their former captain may very well be one of them. If that is the case, he could be a lesser substitute for Kovalchuk. Marleau is nowhere near as dynamic as the Russian sniper, but he is still a solid scorer and a much better two-way player.
The biggest question mark is whether or not Marleau’s inflated production this season is due to an improvement with him or his linemates. Either way, however, he would be a welcome addition and one that the Wild could afford as well.
Wild Nation Verdict: It wouldn’t be the ideal situation, but it wouldn’t be a bad one either. Marleau is a proven scorer and he can play a two-way game – something that Minnesotans appreciate. While not as quick or dynamic as the aforementioned Kovalchuk, he still brings a lot to the table. Not only that, but his salary would allow for the Wild to fill other holes in their roster as well.
Olli Jokinen – C – 32 – Est. Salary: $5M
Jokinen will be going into next season coming off of a down year. After scoring 29 goals and 57 points last season, Jokinen has just eight goals through 42 games this season. He’s been a dynamic scorer in the past and is capable of being one again, but the problem lies in his attitude.
Since coming to Calgary, Jokinen has been talked of as being a “locker room cancer” and his underperformance this season has played a large part in bringing this talk to the forefront. Keeping that in mind, however, he has scored 20+ goals in his last six seasons and 30+ goals in four of these. He has the talent, but the biggest question is if he has the desire and the drive.
Wild Nation Verdict: No thank you. As talented as Jokinen is, the rumors of him being a cancer in the locker room are just not enticing. Coming off of a low point into this off season, a team could find themselves with a bargain should he right the ship. For a Wild team struggling to find their identity on and off the ice, however, I just don’t see that happening.
Saku Koivu – C – 36 – Est. Salary: $3-4M
While Koivu is not the player he was in his prime, there’s no doubt that he can still be an effective player. The question is, in what capacity. He is having a solid season thus far for Anaheim and could well find himself north of the 20 goal plateau again. He was linked strongly to the Wild during the off season and will again likely be linked to the team until he retires because of his brother.
The question mark with Koivu remains how much tread is left on the tires? He has struggled with injuries of the last few seasons and one has got to believe that all of those injuries will begin to take their toll. In addition, he has stated that he doesn’t want to step on his brother’s toes by coming into Minnesota. But would he consider taking on a role as a third line center with the team, as he is still a fantastic defensive player.
Wild Nation Verdict: Time will tell and maybe the Olympics will help him answer some of these questions; however Koivu remains an unlikely possibility for Minnesota, but a possibility nonetheless. The elder Koivu would be a fantastic third line center, but for the price, they could likely do better.
Alexander Frolov – LW – 29 – Est. Salary: $5-7M
Frolov is an admittedly intriguing player for Minnesota to consider. He is a dynamic scorer, though not quite as impressive as Kovalchuk, but he is enigmatic as well. Despite having an off season, Frolov is the type of talent that most simply won’t be able to ignore.
He’s scored 20+ goals in all but his first season in the NHL and has topped 30 twice in that time, not to mention showing that he has the potential to top 70 points on a regular basis when healthy. The problem with Frolov has always lied in his work ethic, but the Wild could be looking at a situation similar to what they had with Guillaume Latendresse – simply a player that needs a change in scenery.
Wild Nation Verdict: If neither Kovalchuk or Marleau are attainable or available, the Wild should consider Frolov. In the right system, in the right situation, Frolov could be an extremely dangerous player. With playmakers like Koivu, Brunette and Havlat, Frolov could be downright lethal. It’s just a matter of whether or not he’s able to put a full season together.
Chris Higgins – C – 28 – Est. Salary: $2-3M
Another enigmatic player this off season is Chris Higgins. Higgins burst onto the scene in Montreal, scoring 20+ goals in his first three full seasons with the team before fading away this season and last. The talent is there, but he just hasn’t been able to recreate his success in his early seasons.
Despite his struggles, Higgins is a big bodied, talented player – something that Chuck Fletcher likes. The Wild had success with a similar enigmatic Montreal player and therefore could take a chance on Higgins. He has the potential to be a very low-risk, high-reward player as well.
Wild Nation Verdict: I’ll be honest. If the cards fall in the right manner, the Wild could take a chance on Higgins. He could fill in an important role on the Wild and, honestly, the price could be right for him as well.
There are obviously many more prospective forwards out there for the Wild to consider, but these are just a few of the ones I find most intriguing. Chuck Fletcher has a unique opportunity to build this team the way he wants it to be built and there is no doubt that the forwards are where he is planning on starting.
As I’ve mentioned, this is obviously devoid of any possible trades he might make or players he might secure during these trades, but one thing is for sure…The Wild are firmly in his hands right now.
Up Next: Defensemen
