The Rise and Fall of the Lifetime Contract?

The NHL needs to institute “Term Limits.”

No…I’m not talking about for its long lamented commissioner.  I’m not talking about for the coaches or general managers.  I’m talking about for the players.

Okay.  So maybe term limit isn’t exactly the right turn of phrase.  But the concept remains.  These “lifetime contracts” are getting absolutely ridiculous.  Sure…They’re a great way to fit your superstar players under the cap.  But, honestly, do they seem a bit shortsighted to anyone else?

Consider Chris Pronger and his $6.25M cap hit.

Not a bad deal for a superstar defenseman, right?  And look at this!  You’re going to have him for $525K per for the last two years of the contract.  Talk about a bargain!

But wait…Hold on.  If he decides to play those last two years…You’ll be paying him $525K…But be on the hook for $6.25M?  Well that doesn’t sound very good.  But, that’s Chris Pronger.  It’s a unique situation.

Okay…So Henrik Zetterberg.  There’s a good contract.  $6.083M cap hit.  That’s a great deal for a player of Hank’s caliber.  But what about when you’re paying him $1M per year in the twilight of his career, yet still on the hook for just over $6M?

Sure, these contracts look great now.  But how about when a player doesn’t have enough tread on the tires to live up to the contract?

Take Brendan Shanahan, for example.  Give him one of those front loaded contracts back in the 2000-01 season.  It looks fantastic when he’s averaging 60-70 points a season and 30-40 goals.  But after a 73 game, 46 point performance?  What about a 34 game, 14 point performance?  It begins to look a lot worse.

Or what about Sergei Fedorov?  Give him one of those contracts back in the same season and it’s looking great when he’s putting up 30-goal, 60-point seasons.  Then he dips down to average 15-goal, 40-point seasons.  Great for the beginning, pretty poor for the end.

The bottom line is that these long-term contracts will only benefit these teams for so long.  Eventually, however, the production of the majority of these players will begin to fall off.  Sure, there will be the odd player that has a career like Joe Sakic has had, whose production stays consistent right up until the end of his career, but the majority of these players?  By the end of their careers, they won’t be worth the cap hit — most of them nowhere near.  Sure…In 2013, Pavel Datsyuk will likely be as productive as he is now.  But will Henrik Zetterberg in 2020?  What about Vincent Lecavalier in 2019?  I highly doubt it.

Don’t get me wrong.  These contracts are great for the players…But they’re horrible for the NHL.  What’s more…They’re horrible for the fans.

Why?

Take a look at this.  The top free agents for 2010?  Nicklas Lidstrom, Roberto Luongo and Ilya Kovalchuk.  If you think that any of these three won’t be locked up (or in Lidstrom’s case, retired) by then, you’re crazy.  After that?  The crop is still decent…Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Nabokov, Olli Jokinen…All good players, all potential game changers…But bona fide 100% pure superstars, they aren’t.

In 2011?  You’ve got Brad Richards, Zdeno Chara and Joe Thornton…But there isn’t a UFA under the age of 31 until you get to Patrice Bergeron and, no offense to him, but I hardly think that teams will be knocking down his door.

2012?  A class headlined by Chris Drury, Ryan Smyth and Brian Rafalski.

Finally, in 2013, you get Sidney Crosby, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nathan Horton, all under 30…But does anyone really think that four out of the five of them will be available?

Talk about nothing for fans to get excited about.  Let me tell you that, if in 2012 I’m getting excited about the possibilities of the Minnesota Wild signing a 35 year old Chris Drury or a 36 year old Ryan Smyth, I should be committed.

The bottom line is that these long-term contracts are a plague on the NHL.  The more long-term contracts get signed, the more teams will, not only handcuff themselves, but handcuff the league’s ability to spread parity throughout.  Not only that, but it harms the fans as well.  A lack of marquee free agents during the off season can kill any momentum that the league has with the fans.

The CBA is expiring soon and it’s looking more and more like there could be another labor dispute looming.  But one thing is for certain.  In the new CBA, the NHL needs to impose some sort of limitation on the length of contracts…Not only for the entertainment of the fans, but for the long term health of the league as well.

And So Ends the Marian Gaborik Era…

5 years, $7.5M per year.

Does anyone else think this is either going to make Glen Sather look like a genius or an idiot?

Truth be told, I’m glad to be rid of the distraction that has been Marian Gaborik.  From his frequent injury troubles, to his often inflated contract demands, Gaborik has been nothing but a thorn in the Wild’s side over the last few seasons and, I am glad to say, that he is now the New York Rangers’ problem.

Truth be told, this could work out very, very well for the Rags.  When at his best, Gaborik is a dynamic winger that can score with the best of them.  The Rangers witnessed that first hand.  When at his worst, however, Gaborik is oftentimes invisible in all three zones.  The biggest problem with the enigma that is Marian Gaborik?  He’s at his worst more often than not — or at least he was with Minnesota.

Don’t get me wrong.  Marian Gaborik is a fantastic player and has the potential to be a star in this league.  But $7.5M for one extremely good season?  I don’t buy it, not one bit.  If he’s healthy (and he claims he is), he’ll notch 75-85 points for the Rangers…And I doubt he’ll get much more.  Don’t get me wrong…That’s fantastic.  It’s certainly something that the Wild could use on their roster.  But the problem is that now, he has no excuses.  He’s had surgery on both of his hips — that should take care of his groin.  He’s no longer playing under Jacques Lemaire — he can no longer fall back on a defensive system as a crutch.  He’s got support around him — Chris Drury and company should help him shoulder the load.

Will Gaborik flourish or wilt?

I, personally, think that he’s a 80-85 point player, not the 100+ point player everyone seems to think he is.

But I’ve been proved wrong before.