Gameday Thread – Game 51 – Red Wings @ Wild
Well, here we are. The first game of a three-game homestand – possibly the most important homestand of the season…Or, at least, since the last one.
I’ve got a few housekeeping matters to talk about before I get to the preview…But I promise, its coming.
First off, thanks to everyone who sent mailbag questions in. It got a pretty good response for a first time and I swear the answers are forthcoming. I’m still working on the responses, but it will be up early next week for sure and my Early Off Season preview of the defensemen will be as well.
Now…On to the shameless plugging (then I swear, to the preview.)
Shameless Plug #1: Check out my article on what I think the Wild’s trade deadline strategy should be, leading up to March 3. It’s on Bleacher Report and I think you’ll like it, or at least appreciate the commentary.
Shameless Plug #2: As always, Hockey Primetime will be offering Trade Deadline coverage on the day of. We’ll be starting our coverage at about 8:30 am CST, and hope to have our regulars (J.P. Hoornstra, Sam P. Woo and Justin Bourne), as well as a guest or two. It will be on Hockey Primetime, but you will also be able to see feeds of it here and at Bourne’s Blog, most likely.
Shameless Plug #3: Finally, check out one of the new Friends of Wild Nation, Stadium Journey. Along with it being a website reviewing sports stadiums and their surrounding areas, it will feature my review of the Xcel Energy Center (SPOILER ALERT: I really like it) soon.
Alright. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, it’s down to business.
I’ve got good news and bad news.
First, the good news. The Wild’s Great Eight will be hitting the ice tonight for the first time since Nov. 18.
That’s right folks. Burnsie is back.
Mike Russo reported that, in his first practice back with the team, he could be heard just about everywhere in the arena and let me tell you, that’s a good sign.
Burns has struggled this season and struggled in a large, large way. In 21 games, he had just two goals and ten points and was a staggering minus-11.
But, during that time, Burnsie just didn’t look like himself. Most notably, he just didn’t look like he was having any fun. (Thanks to Wild Nationite Rick for that insight, which I completely agree with.)
I know what you’re thinking right now. Brent Burns? Not having fun? Get out of town!
The fact is, though, that it was true and it was very evident in his play. The question tonight, however, is which Brent Burns do we get back? The Brent Burns that tried to do absolutely everything on the ice and, as such, was one of our worst players? Or the Brent Burns that caught the eye of Team Canada over the last two seasons?
Based off of the accounts of his practices back, I’m betting on the latter.
Now, onto the bad news. I don’t want to alarm anyone, but we’re playing the Detroit Red Wings tonight.
Sure, they’re riddled with injuries. But they’re still the Red Wings. You remember them. The team that sports a 21-5-5 record against our Minnesota Wild all time.
But, there is good news in the bad news. This is a wholly different Wild team than the Wings have ever faced. A different system, a different tempo…Different everything. Also, the Wings are struggling through injuries. Not to say that I’m glad these players are injured (I’d never wish harm to any player not named Matt Cooke), just to say that this is a Red Wings team that isn’t at full strength.
Oh yeah. And both teams are looking to break three-game losing streaks.
Lineup(s)
Well, you all heard the news over the last few days. We said bye-bye to Sykora and Earl has remained with the team thus far, so we’ll likely see the same lineup that we’ve seen over the past few games. (Unless Fletcher decides to make a trade with Detroit. Sykora for Zetterberg? I like it!)
I would expect that Derek Boogaard will be a casualty, though, against a not-so-pugilistic, quick Detroit squad.
Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen
Latendresse-Brodziak-Havlat
Nolan-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Earl-Ebbett-Sheppard
On defense, he’s back, he’s back, Lord Almighty he’s back! The return of Brent Burns essentially means that John Scott is back sitting next to Pierre-Marc Bouchard in the press box and Clayton Stoner will likely be moved to the IR.
Schultz-Johnsson
Zanon-Zidlicky
Burns-Hnidy
And, drumroll please, between the pipes for the Wild will be Josh Harding. Whether it’s a message being sent to Niklas Backstrom that he needs to play better or it’s giving him a rest or even rewarding Harding for his solid play, the youngster will get the nod in the crease tonight.
What to Watch For
Let’s just put it this way. Whenever the Wild play the Red Wings, I’m not optimistic about our chances.
Bearing that in mind, the Wild are now running a system that is strikingly similar to Detroit’s and, if they’re going to win tonight, need to beat the Wings at their own game – namely, shoot, shoot, shoot.
The Red Wings pepper goalies. They are averaging almost 33 shots per game, almost five shots more than the Wild, and even put up a 40-spot on the Capitals in their last game, despite losing 3-2.
With Minnesota’s defensive struggles of late, it seems to me that the best defense would be a good offense.
The key to that good offense will start with the team’s top two lines. There is no doubt that the offensive catalyst for this team has been the line of Latendresse, Brodziak and Havlat. The three-headed beast of HavLatziak (Cut me some slack. It’s easier than typing all three names.) has been one of the team’s top lines over the last handful of games.
The line that really needs to get into the game early, however, is the AMA line of Koivu, Brunette and Miettinen. These three have struggled together of late, and it took moving Mittens to the third line to spark him into action.
The biggest problem with this line, however, is that they are as defensively proficient as they are offensively. This means that, essentially, they will likely draw the brunt of the matchup against Detroit’s top line of Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Bertuzzi. (Rest assured, you will know when Big Bert is on the ice. We Minnesotans may move on, but we never forget. The boo birds will be out in force.)
Also, keep an eye on Brent Burns. Since his injury, the Wild’s powerplay has been absolutely dreadful. While Burns likely won’t log a great deal of minutes tonight, (I’d wager between 15-17), you can bet your sweet bippy that he’ll be at the point of every single one of the Wild’s powerplay.
Key(s) to the Game
First and foremost, defense.
Josh Harding is going to get peppered tonight. He’s going to see a black piece of vulcanized rubber tossed at him so much that he might have nightmares about it.
The key to this, however, is the quality of these shots. The Wild did a great job of limiting the quality shots against the Blues and Harding rewarded them with a spectacular performance. Conversely, the Wild did a terrible job of limiting the quality shots against the Coyotes and Stars and Backstrom was hung out to dry more often than a fifteen-year-old dress shirt.
If the Wild can limit the quality shots that the Red Wings get, they’ll have a very good chance at stopping a struggling Red Wing team. If they can’t, however, it’s going to be a long, long night for Harding and a long, long night for the fans in attendance.
Also, for the love of God…Can we please score first? Is that really too much to ask?
I would almost sacrifice a win just to see the Wild ahead 1-0 at some point during this game. Almost.
The fact is that the Wild have come out flat more times than not. In their past three games, they have not scored a single goal before the five minute mark of the second period.
That simply is not the hallmark of winning hockey.
Heck. I’d even settle for not falling into a two-goal deficit.
We’ve proven that we can finish the game with energy. Now it’s time to prove that we can start the game with energy.
The puck drops tonight at 7pm CST and is televised on KSTC, Channel 45.
Also, if you’re going to the Wild’s skills competition on Sunday, keep an eye out for me. I’ll be the bearded guy wearing the white Wild jersey autographed by Doc Emerick and possibly an Atlanta Thrashers hat. (No…I haven’t planned my wardrobe out that far in advance. I swear.)
In any event, feel free to stop and say hi if you see me.
Gameday Thread – Game 34 – Wild @ Habs
Well, well, well. Look who’s back in Montreal.
That’s right, Wild Nation faithful. Guillaume Latendresse is returning to Montreal tonight to help the Wild dispatch his former team.
While the game will likely be much more than just G-Lat versus the Montreal Canadiens, it is certainly a storyline that bears observation.
Since arriving in Minnesota, Latendresse has been nothing short of marvelous. He has played with a physical edge, he has shown a tireless work ethic and he has produced. Since arriving in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, G-Lat has notched three goals and an assist in 10 games, not to mention a shootout goal against the Anaheim Ducks.
The bottom line is that, suddenly he has had the weight of the world lifted off of his shoulders — and it shows.
But tonight the young power forward heads home again, hoping to rub some salt in the wound against his former team.
Lineups
While I have not heard anything of yet regarding the Wild’s lineup for tonight’s game, I can’t imagine much changing for tonight’s game, though Andrew Ebbett has traveled with the team and may see action in either tonight’s or Saturday’s game. Were I setting the lineups, though, here’s what it would look like:
Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen
Latendresse-Brodziak-Havlat
Kobasew-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Earl-Ebbett-Sheppard
This is a quick, undersized lineup that the Wild are facing tonight and it is a lineup that has a wealth of skill on it. The biggest mistake the Wild could make, in my opinion, would be to put Derek Boogaard on the ice tonight. Boogaard has not been able to catch a break over the last few games and, against Vancouver especially, his reputation has worked against him. In a game that will likely be up tempo, it will be important for the Wild to put their best foot forward, so to speak.
Zidlicky-Zanon
Schultz-Johnsson
Hnidy-Stoner
There aren’t many changes here, but I’ll be honest — I want to see what Clayton Stoner can do. He was called up just before the road trip and he’s played very, very well in Houston so far this season. The likelihood that John Scott would play anymore than 10-12 minutes in this game is very small, so I don’t see the harm in giving Stoner a shot and getting him in his first NHL action.
Backstrom
‘Nuff said.
What to Watch For
I already mentioned the return of Latendresse to Montreal, but to me, this is one of the less intriguing storylines of the evening.
What is more intriguing is the match up between two teams that are seemingly on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Wild are coming off of a hard-fought win against the Columbus Blue Jackets and have lost just two games in their last 10. The Habs, on the other hand, have struggled mightily as of late, losing four straight and just three of their last 10 games.
The biggest thing to watch in this game will be special teams, however. The Wild’s powerplay that started out so strong this season has faltered, with the team going zero for their last 19 opportunities with the man advantage. Against a strong penalty killing team in the Habs, that isn’t going to be an easy stat to change. Montreal sits at an 84% penalty kill, good for 8th in the NHL.
The Wild is a surging team, however. Their play has been much improved from their 3-9-0 start and they are slowly clawing their way back up the standings. As it stands today, they are just four points from the 8th place Detroit Red Wings and three behind the Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks.
A successful road swing in Eastern Canada could go a long way towards pushing farther up the standings.
Keys to the Game
How will G-Lat respond?
The line of Latendresse, Brodziak and Havlat have been absolutely scintillating over the last couple games. Havlat has six points in three games and has had a hand in six of the team’s last seven goals. He has finally found linemates that he has chemistry with and the line is clicking.
But, the pressure of Montreal had gotten to Latendresse before. Will it get to him again tonight?
I, for one, don’t think so.
In Montreal, he was cast out to the fourth line. His minutes cut and his confidence was shattered. He has said himself that the fact that Richards thinks enough of him to play him consistently has helped and right now his confidence has got to be sky high.
With a coach that trusts him enough to play him and is willing to give him every opportunity to succeed, G-Lat is starting to come into his own and is starting to apply everything that he has learned in his young career.
The Wild also need to continue their trend of shooting, shooting and shooting some more.
In games that they outshoot their opponents in, the Wild are 9-5-2 this season, compared to the Habs record of 8-11-2 when being outshot. Minnesota needs to keep Carey Price busy all night long. While Price is certainly a solid tender, he has not shown the elite level of play that he showed during his rookie season consistently and getting into his head will be paramount for the Wild’s success.
The puck drops tonight from the Bell Centre at 6 pm CST and is televised on Fox Sports.
An Update of Sorts
Since there hasn’t been much (read: any) Wild news to report recently, I just felt that I should inform you all that I am writing for Hockey Primetime once again. All of my Wild news will still be contained here on Wild Nation; however, I will be posting all of my NHL articles on there for the time being. For those interested, here are the links:
HPT Western Conference Predictions: #3 Vancouver vs. #4 Chicago
HPT Western Conference Predictions: #2 Detroit vs. #8 Anaheim
HPT Eastern Conference Predictions: #1 Boston vs. #6 Carolina
HPT Eastern Conference Predictions: #2 Washington vs. #4 Pittsburgh
Masterton Candicates Announced
Canucks Stave Off Comeback; Win Game 1
The Walking Wounded and other Wild Updates
Per Russo,
Goalie Niklas Backstrom will indeed have left hip surgery Friday in Vail. Brian Stensaas was on a conference call with acting GM Tom Lynn. He reports he has two cysts on the bony part of his hip.
Lynn says they won’t know how long he’ll be out until they operate. Worst case scenario, Stensaas says, could be four to six months!
But Lynn said the doctor cautions they can’t give a timetable yet. More from Stensaas in Wednesday’s paper.
Also, I hear Brent Burns is having shoulder surgery probably on Thursday.
This is in addition to Andrew Brunette having reconstructive knee surgery this off season and Derek Boogaard having shoulder surgery.
So what does this mean for the Wild? Well, if the prognosis for Backstrom truly is 4-6 months, that puts Backstrom back at the earliest, August 24th and at the latest October 24th. Knowing Backstrom, he will work his hardest to rehab and be back sooner, but this essentially makes the top priority for the new GM hammering out a deal for back up goalie Josh Harding.
If this is indeed the case, you can take Harding off of the table as a bargaining chip. That is, unless the new GM is suddenly stricken by Barry Brust-mania and believes that Brust can shoulder the load as an NHL starter. What this could do, however, is drive Harding’s stock through the roof. If Harding can perform like Backstrom did when he wrested the starting job away from Manny Fernandez a few years back, Harding could easily become a hot commodity among NHL teams.
The Search Begins
After being denied permission by Brian Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs to speak with Dave Nonis, Wild owner Craig Leipold recieved permission from the Nashville Predators to speak with a couple of his old employees; Director of Hockey Operations Mike Santos and assistant GM Paul Fenton.
From Russo,
Leipold declined comment on them, ”just like I won’t comment on any of the other candidates.”
There are lots of candidates that have surfaced. These are just two that so far I know he’ll be allowed to talk with. I’m sure there are others. I’m working the phones.
Santos is in his third year in Nashville and is responsible in negotiating player contracts and preparing for salary arbitrations. He served as assistant GM for the New York Islanders from 1997-2002 and director of hockey operations for the Florida Panthers from 2002-03.
He was Commissioner and President of the North American Hockey League from 2003-06. He’s worked for USA Hockey and the NHL.
Fenton is in his third year as Nashville’s assistant GM after eight as the director of player personnel. He oversees the Predators’ amateur player development and managers the team’s pro and amateur scouting staffs. He’s also GM of the AHL Milwaukee Admirals.
Fenton, who played eight years in the NHL for seven teams and was a former Boston University standout, also spent five seasons working for the Anaheim Ducks.
It hasn’t happened yet, but another person I’d assume Leipold would request permission to speak with his Pittsburgh assistant GM Chuck Fletcher. He’s 41 with 16 years of experience. He’s immensely respected after years in Florida, Anaheim and Pittsburgh.
Remember, Leipold has a fabulous relationship with Penguins GM Ray Shero, who used to be assistant GM in Nashville.
In addition, the Wild have been denied permission to speak with Red Wings assistant GM Jim Nill. Nill is under contract until 2010-11 and has a commitment in his contract to stay in Detroit. In fact, this quote was run in the Windsor Star when Toronto was inquiring about Nill’s availability.
The way we do things here, I’ve already got most of the responsibilities and input that a general manager would have. Ken [Holland] and I work really well together.
I’m comfortable, I’m well-compensated and I like the organization. I know which side my bread is buttered on.
Risebrough Presser
You’ve got to love hockey guys. Doug Risebrough held his “exit presser” yesterday and held it at Tom Reid’s Hockey City Pub. Gotta love it.
Anyway, Russo had some snippets in his blog regarding the players and it just shows how well respected Risebrough was by his own players. Derek Boogaard had his fiancee drive to the pub after he literally just woke up from having shoulder surgery, just so that he could thank Risebrough for the opportunity and have a chance to say goodbye. Risebrough also spent some quality time with Marian Gaborik at the arena and went to Brent Burns’ home to meet with the youngster after the new broke regarding his concussion problems.
Again, on a personal level, I’m sad to see Risebrough go. He was a great guy, probably the nicest associated with the NHL that I’ve had the pleasure to meet. Part of me feels that he deserved a bit better treatment than he received from Leipold; however, that’s also Leipold’s perogative as the owner. It’s his team and he can run it as he sees fit.
On a business level, however, it was time for a change. Risebrough had become increasingly defensive about his decisions over the past few seasons and it seemed as if fans, management and players alike were all growing tired of his smug, “I know best” attitude. As disappointed as I am that it had to end like this, it certainly had to end.
In the transcript of the presser, however, there was one quote from Risebrough that really rings true to me.
I think the club, I believe the club is in really good shape, and I’ll tell you why. I think it’s got a good core of players. It’s got good youth. I think it’s got great flexibility in terms of the salary cap. It’s got lots of room this year, it’s got lots of room next year. So whether that means what do you want to do immediate signings or future signings, it’s all there. It’s got a great fan base that’s still in love with this team. So it’s going to be energized. I believe players that had poor years will rebound. I’m pretty comfortable to say the injuries aren’t going to be the same magnitude. So I think it’s a great opportunity for a manager and I think it’s a great opportunity for a coach. And I feel good about that. I made decisions on a regular basis for the right reasons, and the right reasons never included me. They never included me, they were always for the franchise. Now I can say, I didn’t always make the right decisions, but I did them for the right reasons. And I feel good about that.
That right there, to me, says it all. Whoever it is has a good base, but also has his work cut out for him. This is a solid team in need of a few key components to become a serious contender. I don’t think this team needs to be blown up and start from scratch again, but at the same time I don’t think that this team is ready to contend next season after all of this going on this off season. One thing’s for sure, though. It’s still an exciting time to be a Wild fan!
Playoff Picture
Where’s Jim Mora when you need him?
Playoffs?!? Playoffs!!?!
Okay, okay, so the reference has probably been beaten to death every single season for every sport since Mora’s famous outburst. The fact remains, however, that the playoffs are bearing down upon us. While the field has yet to be set, we do have a pretty good idea of who is going to be in the big show. We’ll be rating the potential playoff match ups on our newly patented Mora-Meter. One Mora would be the equivalent of watching the World Series of Gin Rummy played on ESPN (my guess as to what the next program to move into the Worldwide Leader instead of hockey) while five Mora’s would be a series that would lead to so much excitement that it would drive Jim Mora into a frenzy that would leave him frothing at the mouth.
So here you have it. The playoff match ups, if the playoffs started today, complete with the new and improved Mora-Meter!
Western Conference
#1 San Jose Sharks v. #8 Nashville Predators
Analysis: The Nashville Predators are like that kid in high school that you never wanted to hang out with, but always somehow ended up getting invited wherever you went. Over the last few seasons the Preds have been the whipping boy of the NHL, more specifically from Canadian fans, about how southern expansion just flat out doesn’t work. The bottom line is, however, that the Preds continue to put a good package on the ice and continue to make the playoffs no matter what. In this series, they’d be running up against a Sharks team that will be hellbent to prove that they can perform in the playoffs. I don’t envy anyone in the position that the Preds are in, but if anyone can pull off a first round upset, it’s them. This could be an intriguing series; however, it could just as easily be a case of the Sharks doing their thing and the Predators hanging on for dear life.
Mora-Meter: 
#2 Detroit Red Wings v. #7 Anaheim Ducks
Analysis: The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Ducks bounced the Wings en route to a Stanley Cup Championship. Can anyone think of anything more intriguing than the last two Stanley Cup Champions facing off and in the first round no less? The biggest swing in this match up is that the Ducks still play like they’re the class bully, while the Red Wings bully teams by skating circles around them. What makes this series even more interesting is the fact that the Wings and the Ducks quite simply don’t like each other. Lest we forget Chris Pronger attempting to remove Tomas Holmstrom’s head from his body, amongst other things transpiring between the two teams that cultivated the bad blood in their last post season meeting. The Red Wings always seem to be a step ahead of the NHL; however, this season, their goaltending could be their Achillies Heel and with a potent Ducks powerplay, it would make for some great playoff hockey.
Mora-Meter:
#3 Vancouver Canucks v. #6 Columbus Blue Jackets
Analysis: Is it bad that there’s a large part of me that really wants Vancouver to slide down so that Calgary takes this spot? I mean, let’s be honest. I’m a Wild fan. I have no vested interest in the playoffs to mention at the moment (maybe by the last game of the season…A guy can dream, right?) so I don’t really care who wins the division, other than the fact that I just want to watch an entertaining playoff series. To me, there would be no more interesting series than a Flames/Jackets and Canucks/’Hawks series, because the teams just don’t like each other. But I digress. In this one, honestly, there’s not really any appreciable storylines to speak of, nor do either of the teams play extremely exciting hockey. On one side, the Blue Jackets are almost 100% playoff un-tested (save for a few players), while the ‘Nucks have some star players with a propensity to do a disappearing act in the playoffs. All of this adds up to a series that could prove to be pretty uneventful; though worth watching to watch how the Jackets respond to playoff hockey.
Mora-Meter:
#4 Chicago Blackhawks v. #5 Calgary Flames
Analysis: As much as I would love to watch the ‘Hawks fight play the ‘Nucks, I think this series would be extremely entertaining to watch. First, you have a rematch in net of the ’03-’04 Cup Finals (Kipper v. Bulin), then you’ve got two teams with some very dynamic players (Kane, Toews and Havlat v. Iginla, Cammalleri and Jokinen) and finally you’ve got two teams with some fantastic defensemen (Seabrook and Keith v. Phaneuf and Regher). This could become the best series in the first round if it stays this way. Plus, if Phaneuf keeps playing the way he has been, you could find yourself looking at a very formidable “sloppy” second defensive pairing of Phaneuf and Leopold. Sorry. Couldn’t resist.
Mora-Meter:
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Bruins v. #8 Montreal Canadiens
Analysis: How’s this for a role reversal? The exact match up of last season’s first round, just with home ice turned around. If both teams are on their game, this could be an exciting series to watch. The problem is that both teams have battled inconsistency since the All Star Break. The biggest thing to look forward to, however, is that these two teams always get up to play one another. Look at last season’s first round. A seven-game slugfest that was probably the most entertaining series in all the playoffs. Plus, there’s also always the chance that you could hear Jack Edwards’ maniacal laugh again. That in and of itself is reason enough to watch. All of this equals one amazingly entertaining first round series.
Mora-Meter: 
#2 Washington Capitals v. #7 New York Rangers
Analysis: Honestly, this is another that I wish was a little different, but beggars can’t be choosers, right? This one, well, this could be interesting. On one end you’ve got the Caps’ unbelievable offens and on the other you’ve got the Rangers’ unbelievable goaltender. Coach John Tortorella has helped the Rangers find their game again; however, can he put a stop to the attack of the Capitals? On the other side of things, you’ve got the Rangers’ aneimic offense squaring off against the Caps’ inconsistent goalie. This could either be a very high scoring series or a series where you get nothing at all. Any series pitting a high powered offense against a solid goaltender, however, can prove to be a fun series to watch.
Mora-Meter:
#3 New Jersey Devils v. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Analysis: Ok. So can someone please explain to me if the Devils are just coasting to the playoffs or if something is going on and when, exactly, Lou is going to place himself behind the bench yet again? Alright. I feel better now. Now that I’ve said my piece, this could be a very one sided series if the Devils don’t right the ship and quick. The ‘Canes have had success against Newark’s finest this season, and if the Devils back into the playoffs this could get ugly quick. Looking at the potential match up, the ‘Canes match up quite nicely against the Devil and have the hot hand. Both teams have a solid defense and an under rated offense. There should be some very tightly contested games in this series and some good, physical play.
Mora-Meter:
#4 Philadelphia Flyers v. #5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis: The Broadstreet Bullies against the NHL’s wunderkid. I don’t see how it could get much better than this; a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. The Flyers were ran out of town by the Pens in the ECF last season, but this is also a Flyers team that has gained a lot more character since then, not in turnover of players but just in experience. The big question mark for both teams is definitely in net and, in all honesty, that could lead to a very entertaining series. These two teams are also division rivals and flat out don’t like each other. That’s good enough in my book!
Mora-Meter:
So there you have it. My thoughts on the current playoff picture.
Also, coming next week will be the first intrim show of Wild Nation. Join myself and Nick in New York next week as we talk about all things Wild! We will have a time and date set for our first show sometime this weekend.
Tanking the Season?
Around this time of year, you hear the term “tanking the season” quite a bit.
What is tanking the season? It’s the theory that losing eventually begets winning through a plethora of high draft picks. The team that is ultimately pointed to for this theory is the Pittsburgh Penguins. With draft picks of Marc-Andre Fleury (1st Overall in ’03), Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall in ’04), Sidney Crosby (1st Overall in ’05) and Jordan Staal (2nd Overall in ’06), the team has built a winner through the draft. Great in theory; however, the team struggled through four losing seasons to get to this point.
This path will make you good for a few years; but once you have to pay all of these players, it makes it much more difficult to ice a winning team. Just look at the top-heavy Ottawa Senators. With a considerable amount of coin locked up in Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson (approximately $19M this season and $20M next), the Sens have about 36% of their cap room allocated to three players and that’s if the cap stays where it is right now. To stay with our example team, in Pittsburgh, they currently have their core of Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury locked up for a total cap hit of approximately $26.65M until the ’12/’13 season at the earliest, not to mention another additional $3.75M for Brooks Orpik. That’s a total of $30.4M on five players. If the cap stays where it is, the Pens would have approximately 54% of their cap hit allocated to five players. A number that I would not be happy with if I were a Pens fan, especially with the impending drop in the cap ceiling.
Conversely, take a look at the Detroit Red Wings. 9 seasons with 100+ points. They have not missed the playoffs since the ’89-’90 season and have won four Stanley Cups since this 17 season stretch began. The Red Wings currently have fifteen players that have dressed for them this season that were drafted by the organization. Of these fifteen, only one (Niklas Kronwall) was drafted in the first round.
So…How have the Red Wings achieved this sort of dominance? Shrewd late round draft picks (Datsyuk, Zetterberg etc.) combined with shrewd free agent signings (Stuart, Hossa). In fact, the Red Wings are proof that you do not need to lose to be good. They are proof that, in fact, a winning tradition and solid management from the top down are a better strategy than “tanking it.”
Why? The reason is simple. For a free agent player, or any player for that matter, are you going to give your all for a team that packed it in and stopped trying just a few months earlier? Are you going to want to come play for a team that just packs it in when the going gets tough? Are your young players going to benefit from just coasting through games, playing for an early first round draft pick?
For teams on the outside with no hopes of making the playoffs, there is much to play for still. There is pride. These late season games are some of the most important for young players, because a late season winning streak can be the difference between a positive off season and an off season spent dwelling on what could have been.
As a fan, I never want to see my team pack it in or tank the season or whatever you want to call it. I want to see my team fight to the bitter end. There is nothing that brings a team closer together than adversity and winning in the midst of adversity. This is what I want from my team. Not a team that just gives up so that they can get a good draft pick.
And if there’s a single NHL player out there thinking that way, he’s got no place on the roster of this fan’s team.
If the Playoffs Started Today – 3/12/09
It’s that time of the year. The time when every point matters. The time where the difference between losing in regulation and losing in overtime could mean a playoff spot. Both conferences are jam-packed, especially towards the bottom, so we’re going to keep an eye on potential first round match ups and even do a little prognostication as to how the teams match up. We’ll also keep an eye on who’s on the outside looking in.
And here…we…go…
Eastern Conference
(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Florida Panthers - This is a pretty intriguing match up for the first round. You’ve got the Bruins, who have been struggling recently against the Panthers who have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. The Bruins struggles have been in large part to the disappearing acts of Michael Ryder and Blake Wheeler, as well as some inconsistency with the rest of their offense and the Panthers are a scrappy team that may thrive on the close quarters and pressure of the playoffs. All told, though, it’s hard to think that the Bruins couldn’t pull out a seven game series in this one. Advantage Boston.
(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Carolina Hurricanes - If I’m the Devils, Carolina is the absolute last team I would want to face in the first round. The ‘Canes are buzzing right now and the acquisition of Erik Cole has re-energized Eric Staal. On the other hand, the Devils have a fresh Martin Brodeur and one of the most dynamic group of forwards in the league. This series could be an instant classic, with both teams having unlimited amounts of energy as well as fresh and re-energized superstars. Brodeur ultimately gives the Devils the edge in just about any series, but this one would be fun to watch. Advantage New Jersey.
(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Pittsburgh Penguins - Is it just me or would this be the NHL marketing department’s dream come true? I can’t think of a more compelling match up for the first round and the only thing that I can think of that would be better is if the two teams met in the Conference Finals. The Pens are the hottest team in the league, while the Caps are, well, the Caps. The animosity between these two teams has continued to grow throughout the season and a playoff series between the two would send it over the top. This is also a series that could go either way. It’s hard to pick a clear cut winner in this one. Draw.
(4) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (5) Montreal Canadiens - To round out the first round, a Philly/Montreal series? This could ultimately be some pretty exciting hockey in the first round. The Flyers were the team that knocked the Habs out of the first round last season and don’t think that the Habs or their fans have forgotten it. This is another series that could make for an instant classic; mostly because of how well these two teams match up against one another. Looking at this, it’s very hard to pick a team that would have a distinct advantage, but Philly’s physical game could easily put them over the top. Advantage Philadelphia.
On The Outside Looking In: With just 15 games remaining in the season, a big part of the Eastern Conference is already eliminated (not necessarily mathmatically, but realistically). The two that remain in contention are the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers. Of those two teams, the Rangers have the most realistic chance of supplanting the Panthers in the 8th seed, seeing as how they are one point behind. Both teams have struggled recently, with the Sabres losing Ryan Miller to injury and the Rangers having to be broken into a new coach, so it’s likely that the way the playoffs sit now could easily be how they sit come the end of the regular season.
Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Nashville Predators - Once again, the Preds are making a hard charge at the playoffs late in the season. Meanwhile, the Sharks are, well, the Sharks. They have struggled lately, but are still a strong team and, though he has had a sub-par season by his standars, Evgeni Nabokov is one of the top goalies in the league. It is pretty hard to think that the Preds could give the Sharks a run for their money as they did with the Wings last season, but if the stars align, anything is possible in the playoffs. Advantage San Jose.
(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Edmonton Oilers - The last time the Wings and Oilers met in the first round, the Wings were bounced unceremoniously en route to the Oilers magical run to the Cup finals. Don’t expect that to happen this time. The Red Wings are one of the most talented teams in the league and, despite not having a designated “enforcer,” have a great deal of sand paper on their roster. Meanwhile, this Oilers team is nowhere near as gritty as the team that contended for the Cup. The Wings should have no problem in this series. Advantage Detroit.
(3) Calgary Flames vs. (6) Columbus Blue Jackets - This series is a crap shoot in that there’s really no telling how the majority of Columbus’s roster is going to react to playoff hockey. They could take to it like a fish to water and fly, or they could flounder. Looking at the Flames roster, however, it’s very difficult to bet against this team as they have a roster that is even better than the last time they reached the finals. As hard as it is to discount a team coached by Ken Hitchcock, you can’t look past the talent and depth of the Flames roster. Advantage Calgary.
(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Vancouver Canucks - This is an interesting series. The Blackhawks are certainly more talented, but have limited playoff experience, while the Canucks have multiple players on their roster that have been involved in deep Cup runs. The wildcard for the Canucks, however, is Roberto Luongo. Time and again he has proven that he’s one of the best in the game, but he’s also only played in the playoffs once (though he was dazzling). Ultimately, you’ve got to believe that the ‘Hawks talent would win out of the ‘Nucks experience in a seven game series. Advantage Chicago.
On the Outside Looking In: There are four teams within three points of the playoffs and and one more within four. The Wild, Stars and Ducks all are within one point of 7th, the Blues are just two points back from them and the Kings are just one back from the Blues. In a tight playoff race, the extra points can make or break a season. The team that could have the best shot of squeaking in is the Wild. They hold a game in hand over both Dallas and Anaheim as well as Nashville and they hold the tiebreaker over Edmonton. The Wild are a good team mired by inconsistency and they will be getting their most dangerous offensive weapon back soon. It’s no stretch to think that they could make a solid run at the playoffs in the last weeks of the season. Both the Ducks and the Stars have been inconsistent at best of late, while the Blues and Kings have been streaky as well. If one of these five teams finds any modicum of consistency, they could easily streak into the playoffs.
