Gameday Thread – Game 53 – Wings @ Wild
UPDATE: So the blogosphere is flip-flopping as much as John Kerry on tonight’s starting goalie. First it was Backstrom, then it was Harding, then it was Backstrom again, now it might be Harding. I’m just going to go ahead and say that no one but the coach has any stinking idea who will start tonight (but, between the two, my guess will be Backstrom). Also, the Wild assigned Petr Sykora to Houston and have reportedly reached an agreement with his agent to mutually terminate his contract, pending league approval.
There’s no doubt that the Wild this season have been about as consistent as a schizophrenic on speed and have left many of their loyal fanbase in desperate need of some sort of emotional therapy.
Bearing that in mind, consider this blog right here your own personal “truth zone.” I promise that I won’t try to sugarcoat things for you and I promise that I’ll try to remain optimistic about the Wild’s chances this season.
Realistically, there’s a lot to be optimistic about.
Martin Havlat has finally caught fire and is playing like the player we thought we were getting at the season’s onset. Mikko Koivu is on pace for yet another career season. Guillaume Latendresse is playing like a man possessed for the Wild, having scored 13 goals and 19 points in just 27 games with the team.
Have I mentioned that we’ve gotten Brent Burns back, and he’s actually playing Brent Burns hockey? Or that Robbie Earl is scoring a goal in about every third game and truly looking like he belongs? Or that this could quite possibly be the most closely knit Wild team that I’ve seen in quite some time?
There is, indeed, light on the horizon for the boys in Iron Range Red.
The problem is that we’re not on the horizon yet. We’re in the here and now.
It would be easy to go into some long rant about how this game is a must win, how it would do wonders for the team’s confidence, how a solid game from Backstrom would be great for his confidence.
All of the above holds true.
But we’ll just put it this way.
We’re sitting in 12th place in the Western Conference, just five points from the final playoff spot. Just five points behind the very team that we play tonight.
A regulation win tonight puts us three points behind them (for those who, like myself, are mathematically challenged).
Right now, Hockey Reference has the Wild listed as having a 14% chance of making the playoffs. Hardly a foregone conclusion, but also there is hope.
The problem, for the Wild, lies behind the fact that they are having to play catch up.
The teams that they’re chasing?
Well, the Sharks have won five straight, the Avs six, the Kings three – you get the point.
The good news is that the teams that they are most likely to catch are either struggling or in a flat-out free fall.
The team tonight gets lumped in with the former.
While everyone in Detroit is remaining optimistic that this is a team that could do damage in the playoffs, if healthy (and let’s be honest, they really could), the fact is that they are currently decimated by injuries – something that the Wild need to take advantage of tonight.
Lineup(s)
To be honest, I’m not quite sure how the lines will roll out for the Wild past the top two, but here’s my best guess, otherwise known what I would do were I the one making the lineups:
Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen
Latendresse-Brodziak-Havlat
Nolan-Belanger-Earl
Sheppard-Ebbett-Clutterbuck
Now, I know what you’re asking. Clutterbuck on the fourth line? You’re demoting Cal for Robbie Earl? WTF mate!?
Am I crazy? There’s a good chance. But here’s my thoughts. Robbie Earl has five goals this season. Hardly Ovechkin-esque numbers, right? But his shooting percentage? 41.7%. He has five goals on 12 shots. To me, that deserves a shot at playing with the big boys.
Meanwhile, Clutterbuck has not been playing his best over the last few games. By no means do I think he deserves a demotion to the eight minutes a game that Earl has been averaging, but I do think that Earl deserves a promotion to more than eight minutes per-game, to see what he can do.
On defense, it’s likely going to be more of the same:
Zidlicky-Zanon
Johnsson-Schultz
Burns-Hnidy
Look for Burns’s icetime to start increasing, however. He’s going to start getting more and more icetime as his level of conditioning continues to improve and the Wild need him to do just that, especially in a game like tonight’s against an extremely tough opponent.
In net, we’ll get Backstrom despite him getting his “maintenance” day yesterday. Don’t kid yourselves. He’s struggling, but he’s still our number one and he needs to play his way out of this slump, no matter how painful it is to watch.
What to Watch For
Seriously. Robbie Earl.
Why? The Wild is 10-3-2 with him in the lineup and 9-0-1 in his last ten.
Whatever it is that Robbie brings to this team when he’s suited up, it’s infectious. The team has, on a whole, played better with him in the lineup. His speed and grit help this team a great deal and he’s just the type of sparkplug that the Wild need in their lineup.
Also, keep an eye on Guillaume Latendresse.
After his hot streak got him named the third star of the week a couple weeks ago, he has been silent in his last three games.
The good news with G-Lat is twofold.
First, he usually comes out of his shell quite nicely after a scoreless streak. (Six game scoreless streak, followed by four goals in four games. Four game scoreless streak, followed by seven goals and 12 points in seven games.)
Second, even when he’s not scoring he can be an energizer and a difference maker. How? He’s averaging 2.5 shots per game since joining the Wild and 3.5 in his last ten games, and he has turned into a forechecking and checking machine since joining the Wild.
Finally, Niklas Backstrom.
Namely, which Nik will we get? Will we get the one who stoned Columbus for 59:30? Or will we get the one that saw a bad bounce break his shutout and get flustered into giving up one more.
My guess is that he will come out like a man possessed as he did against Columbus. He knows that the hasn’t been playing his best and he knows that the team needs him desperately. Backs will be ready tonight.
But will the Wild?
Key(s) to the Game
The Wild need to come out strong early.
They simply cannot afford to fall into another hole against a good team.
Jimmy Howard is proving that he is the man in net for Detroit and the Wild need to get to him early, as much for their confidence as his.
The Wild tend to score in bunches, so if they can get an early goal, there’s a good chance that their jump will continue and they might be able to extend their lead.
But they cannot afford to fall behind. If they fall behind to Detroit, especially by more than one goal, they will be in deep, deep trouble.
The Wild also NEED to limit the Wings’ scoring chances.
Detroit likes to shoot. Scratch that. They LOVE to shoot.
The Wild have got to protect Backstrom and get in shooting lanes. If they can prevent the Wings from getting a dearth of solid scoring opportunities, they will be able to stay in the game. But another shooting gallery, like happened in the teams’ last meeting?
It could be a long game.
Finally, the Wild need to, need to, need to stop the Wings’ top line. Let Dan Cleary beat you. Let Drew Miller beat you. Let Ville Leino beat you. But, for the love of God, do NOT let Bertuzzi or Datsyuk or Zetterberg beat you. The three of them account for 28% of Detroit’s points and 30% of Detroit’s goal production.
This isn’t saying that the three players I mentioned, or any of the Wings’ other players can’t beat you. But shutting down the Berzettersyuk line gives you a much better chance.
The puck drops tonight at 7pm and it is televised on FSN! For those following me on Twitter, I’ll hopefully be posting updates on there as we go (though they will definitely not rival those of Mike Russo). You can follow me on Twitter at @WildNation!
Gameday Thread – Game 51 – Red Wings @ Wild
Well, here we are. The first game of a three-game homestand – possibly the most important homestand of the season…Or, at least, since the last one.
I’ve got a few housekeeping matters to talk about before I get to the preview…But I promise, its coming.
First off, thanks to everyone who sent mailbag questions in. It got a pretty good response for a first time and I swear the answers are forthcoming. I’m still working on the responses, but it will be up early next week for sure and my Early Off Season preview of the defensemen will be as well.
Now…On to the shameless plugging (then I swear, to the preview.)
Shameless Plug #1: Check out my article on what I think the Wild’s trade deadline strategy should be, leading up to March 3. It’s on Bleacher Report and I think you’ll like it, or at least appreciate the commentary.
Shameless Plug #2: As always, Hockey Primetime will be offering Trade Deadline coverage on the day of. We’ll be starting our coverage at about 8:30 am CST, and hope to have our regulars (J.P. Hoornstra, Sam P. Woo and Justin Bourne), as well as a guest or two. It will be on Hockey Primetime, but you will also be able to see feeds of it here and at Bourne’s Blog, most likely.
Shameless Plug #3: Finally, check out one of the new Friends of Wild Nation, Stadium Journey. Along with it being a website reviewing sports stadiums and their surrounding areas, it will feature my review of the Xcel Energy Center (SPOILER ALERT: I really like it) soon.
Alright. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, it’s down to business.
I’ve got good news and bad news.
First, the good news. The Wild’s Great Eight will be hitting the ice tonight for the first time since Nov. 18.
That’s right folks. Burnsie is back.
Mike Russo reported that, in his first practice back with the team, he could be heard just about everywhere in the arena and let me tell you, that’s a good sign.
Burns has struggled this season and struggled in a large, large way. In 21 games, he had just two goals and ten points and was a staggering minus-11.
But, during that time, Burnsie just didn’t look like himself. Most notably, he just didn’t look like he was having any fun. (Thanks to Wild Nationite Rick for that insight, which I completely agree with.)
I know what you’re thinking right now. Brent Burns? Not having fun? Get out of town!
The fact is, though, that it was true and it was very evident in his play. The question tonight, however, is which Brent Burns do we get back? The Brent Burns that tried to do absolutely everything on the ice and, as such, was one of our worst players? Or the Brent Burns that caught the eye of Team Canada over the last two seasons?
Based off of the accounts of his practices back, I’m betting on the latter.
Now, onto the bad news. I don’t want to alarm anyone, but we’re playing the Detroit Red Wings tonight.
Sure, they’re riddled with injuries. But they’re still the Red Wings. You remember them. The team that sports a 21-5-5 record against our Minnesota Wild all time.
But, there is good news in the bad news. This is a wholly different Wild team than the Wings have ever faced. A different system, a different tempo…Different everything. Also, the Wings are struggling through injuries. Not to say that I’m glad these players are injured (I’d never wish harm to any player not named Matt Cooke), just to say that this is a Red Wings team that isn’t at full strength.
Oh yeah. And both teams are looking to break three-game losing streaks.
Lineup(s)
Well, you all heard the news over the last few days. We said bye-bye to Sykora and Earl has remained with the team thus far, so we’ll likely see the same lineup that we’ve seen over the past few games. (Unless Fletcher decides to make a trade with Detroit. Sykora for Zetterberg? I like it!)
I would expect that Derek Boogaard will be a casualty, though, against a not-so-pugilistic, quick Detroit squad.
Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen
Latendresse-Brodziak-Havlat
Nolan-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Earl-Ebbett-Sheppard
On defense, he’s back, he’s back, Lord Almighty he’s back! The return of Brent Burns essentially means that John Scott is back sitting next to Pierre-Marc Bouchard in the press box and Clayton Stoner will likely be moved to the IR.
Schultz-Johnsson
Zanon-Zidlicky
Burns-Hnidy
And, drumroll please, between the pipes for the Wild will be Josh Harding. Whether it’s a message being sent to Niklas Backstrom that he needs to play better or it’s giving him a rest or even rewarding Harding for his solid play, the youngster will get the nod in the crease tonight.
What to Watch For
Let’s just put it this way. Whenever the Wild play the Red Wings, I’m not optimistic about our chances.
Bearing that in mind, the Wild are now running a system that is strikingly similar to Detroit’s and, if they’re going to win tonight, need to beat the Wings at their own game – namely, shoot, shoot, shoot.
The Red Wings pepper goalies. They are averaging almost 33 shots per game, almost five shots more than the Wild, and even put up a 40-spot on the Capitals in their last game, despite losing 3-2.
With Minnesota’s defensive struggles of late, it seems to me that the best defense would be a good offense.
The key to that good offense will start with the team’s top two lines. There is no doubt that the offensive catalyst for this team has been the line of Latendresse, Brodziak and Havlat. The three-headed beast of HavLatziak (Cut me some slack. It’s easier than typing all three names.) has been one of the team’s top lines over the last handful of games.
The line that really needs to get into the game early, however, is the AMA line of Koivu, Brunette and Miettinen. These three have struggled together of late, and it took moving Mittens to the third line to spark him into action.
The biggest problem with this line, however, is that they are as defensively proficient as they are offensively. This means that, essentially, they will likely draw the brunt of the matchup against Detroit’s top line of Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Bertuzzi. (Rest assured, you will know when Big Bert is on the ice. We Minnesotans may move on, but we never forget. The boo birds will be out in force.)
Also, keep an eye on Brent Burns. Since his injury, the Wild’s powerplay has been absolutely dreadful. While Burns likely won’t log a great deal of minutes tonight, (I’d wager between 15-17), you can bet your sweet bippy that he’ll be at the point of every single one of the Wild’s powerplay.
Key(s) to the Game
First and foremost, defense.
Josh Harding is going to get peppered tonight. He’s going to see a black piece of vulcanized rubber tossed at him so much that he might have nightmares about it.
The key to this, however, is the quality of these shots. The Wild did a great job of limiting the quality shots against the Blues and Harding rewarded them with a spectacular performance. Conversely, the Wild did a terrible job of limiting the quality shots against the Coyotes and Stars and Backstrom was hung out to dry more often than a fifteen-year-old dress shirt.
If the Wild can limit the quality shots that the Red Wings get, they’ll have a very good chance at stopping a struggling Red Wing team. If they can’t, however, it’s going to be a long, long night for Harding and a long, long night for the fans in attendance.
Also, for the love of God…Can we please score first? Is that really too much to ask?
I would almost sacrifice a win just to see the Wild ahead 1-0 at some point during this game. Almost.
The fact is that the Wild have come out flat more times than not. In their past three games, they have not scored a single goal before the five minute mark of the second period.
That simply is not the hallmark of winning hockey.
Heck. I’d even settle for not falling into a two-goal deficit.
We’ve proven that we can finish the game with energy. Now it’s time to prove that we can start the game with energy.
The puck drops tonight at 7pm CST and is televised on KSTC, Channel 45.
Also, if you’re going to the Wild’s skills competition on Sunday, keep an eye out for me. I’ll be the bearded guy wearing the white Wild jersey autographed by Doc Emerick and possibly an Atlanta Thrashers hat. (No…I haven’t planned my wardrobe out that far in advance. I swear.)
In any event, feel free to stop and say hi if you see me.
The Rise and Fall of the Lifetime Contract?
The NHL needs to institute “Term Limits.”
No…I’m not talking about for its long lamented commissioner. I’m not talking about for the coaches or general managers. I’m talking about for the players.
Okay. So maybe term limit isn’t exactly the right turn of phrase. But the concept remains. These “lifetime contracts” are getting absolutely ridiculous. Sure…They’re a great way to fit your superstar players under the cap. But, honestly, do they seem a bit shortsighted to anyone else?
Consider Chris Pronger and his $6.25M cap hit.
Not a bad deal for a superstar defenseman, right? And look at this! You’re going to have him for $525K per for the last two years of the contract. Talk about a bargain!
But wait…Hold on. If he decides to play those last two years…You’ll be paying him $525K…But be on the hook for $6.25M? Well that doesn’t sound very good. But, that’s Chris Pronger. It’s a unique situation.
Okay…So Henrik Zetterberg. There’s a good contract. $6.083M cap hit. That’s a great deal for a player of Hank’s caliber. But what about when you’re paying him $1M per year in the twilight of his career, yet still on the hook for just over $6M?
Sure, these contracts look great now. But how about when a player doesn’t have enough tread on the tires to live up to the contract?
Take Brendan Shanahan, for example. Give him one of those front loaded contracts back in the 2000-01 season. It looks fantastic when he’s averaging 60-70 points a season and 30-40 goals. But after a 73 game, 46 point performance? What about a 34 game, 14 point performance? It begins to look a lot worse.
Or what about Sergei Fedorov? Give him one of those contracts back in the same season and it’s looking great when he’s putting up 30-goal, 60-point seasons. Then he dips down to average 15-goal, 40-point seasons. Great for the beginning, pretty poor for the end.
The bottom line is that these long-term contracts will only benefit these teams for so long. Eventually, however, the production of the majority of these players will begin to fall off. Sure, there will be the odd player that has a career like Joe Sakic has had, whose production stays consistent right up until the end of his career, but the majority of these players? By the end of their careers, they won’t be worth the cap hit — most of them nowhere near. Sure…In 2013, Pavel Datsyuk will likely be as productive as he is now. But will Henrik Zetterberg in 2020? What about Vincent Lecavalier in 2019? I highly doubt it.
Don’t get me wrong. These contracts are great for the players…But they’re horrible for the NHL. What’s more…They’re horrible for the fans.
Why?
Take a look at this. The top free agents for 2010? Nicklas Lidstrom, Roberto Luongo and Ilya Kovalchuk. If you think that any of these three won’t be locked up (or in Lidstrom’s case, retired) by then, you’re crazy. After that? The crop is still decent…Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Nabokov, Olli Jokinen…All good players, all potential game changers…But bona fide 100% pure superstars, they aren’t.
In 2011? You’ve got Brad Richards, Zdeno Chara and Joe Thornton…But there isn’t a UFA under the age of 31 until you get to Patrice Bergeron and, no offense to him, but I hardly think that teams will be knocking down his door.
2012? A class headlined by Chris Drury, Ryan Smyth and Brian Rafalski.
Finally, in 2013, you get Sidney Crosby, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nathan Horton, all under 30…But does anyone really think that four out of the five of them will be available?
Talk about nothing for fans to get excited about. Let me tell you that, if in 2012 I’m getting excited about the possibilities of the Minnesota Wild signing a 35 year old Chris Drury or a 36 year old Ryan Smyth, I should be committed.
The bottom line is that these long-term contracts are a plague on the NHL. The more long-term contracts get signed, the more teams will, not only handcuff themselves, but handcuff the league’s ability to spread parity throughout. Not only that, but it harms the fans as well. A lack of marquee free agents during the off season can kill any momentum that the league has with the fans.
The CBA is expiring soon and it’s looking more and more like there could be another labor dispute looming. But one thing is for certain. In the new CBA, the NHL needs to impose some sort of limitation on the length of contracts…Not only for the entertainment of the fans, but for the long term health of the league as well.
Tanking the Season?
Around this time of year, you hear the term “tanking the season” quite a bit.
What is tanking the season? It’s the theory that losing eventually begets winning through a plethora of high draft picks. The team that is ultimately pointed to for this theory is the Pittsburgh Penguins. With draft picks of Marc-Andre Fleury (1st Overall in ‘03), Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall in ‘04), Sidney Crosby (1st Overall in ‘05) and Jordan Staal (2nd Overall in ‘06), the team has built a winner through the draft. Great in theory; however, the team struggled through four losing seasons to get to this point.
This path will make you good for a few years; but once you have to pay all of these players, it makes it much more difficult to ice a winning team. Just look at the top-heavy Ottawa Senators. With a considerable amount of coin locked up in Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson (approximately $19M this season and $20M next), the Sens have about 36% of their cap room allocated to three players and that’s if the cap stays where it is right now. To stay with our example team, in Pittsburgh, they currently have their core of Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury locked up for a total cap hit of approximately $26.65M until the ‘12/’13 season at the earliest, not to mention another additional $3.75M for Brooks Orpik. That’s a total of $30.4M on five players. If the cap stays where it is, the Pens would have approximately 54% of their cap hit allocated to five players. A number that I would not be happy with if I were a Pens fan, especially with the impending drop in the cap ceiling.
Conversely, take a look at the Detroit Red Wings. 9 seasons with 100+ points. They have not missed the playoffs since the ‘89-’90 season and have won four Stanley Cups since this 17 season stretch began. The Red Wings currently have fifteen players that have dressed for them this season that were drafted by the organization. Of these fifteen, only one (Niklas Kronwall) was drafted in the first round.
So…How have the Red Wings achieved this sort of dominance? Shrewd late round draft picks (Datsyuk, Zetterberg etc.) combined with shrewd free agent signings (Stuart, Hossa). In fact, the Red Wings are proof that you do not need to lose to be good. They are proof that, in fact, a winning tradition and solid management from the top down are a better strategy than “tanking it.”
Why? The reason is simple. For a free agent player, or any player for that matter, are you going to give your all for a team that packed it in and stopped trying just a few months earlier? Are you going to want to come play for a team that just packs it in when the going gets tough? Are your young players going to benefit from just coasting through games, playing for an early first round draft pick?
For teams on the outside with no hopes of making the playoffs, there is much to play for still. There is pride. These late season games are some of the most important for young players, because a late season winning streak can be the difference between a positive off season and an off season spent dwelling on what could have been.
As a fan, I never want to see my team pack it in or tank the season or whatever you want to call it. I want to see my team fight to the bitter end. There is nothing that brings a team closer together than adversity and winning in the midst of adversity. This is what I want from my team. Not a team that just gives up so that they can get a good draft pick.
And if there’s a single NHL player out there thinking that way, he’s got no place on the roster of this fan’s team.
