Backstrom For Vezina; Aeros Advance

First off, I’d like to thank you all for bearing with me over the last few days.  My seven month old daughter had come down with something which necessitated my being gone for a few days.  But never to fear…It’s the off season, so not a whole heck of a lot occurred over those last few days!

Niklas Backstrom
It’s been a big couple weeks for the Finnish netminder.  First, his surgery was a huge success, leading Dr. Philippon to conclude that Backstrom will be ready to go in full in about 12 weeks.  I don’t know all of the details, but apparently the cartilage damage was much less than the doctor had originally thought and the issues with Backstrom’s hip have been corrected by the surgery.  Keep in mind that this is the same surgery that Marian Gaborik underwent during the season.

In addition to a successful surgery, Niklas Backstrom also became the third member of the Wild’s organization to be named a finalist for a voted-upon NHL end of the year award.  The other two?  Jacques Lemaire and Wes Walz for the Jack Adams and Selke trophies respectively.  This is not the first hardware that Backstrom has won as a member of the Wild.  In the ’06-’07 season, his rookie season, he walked away with the Roger Crozier Saving Grace Award for the league’s best save percentage and teamed with Manny Fernandez, winning the William M. Jennings Trophy, for the team with the least goals against.

Backstrom will have a tough time winning this award, however, as he will be going up against Boston’s Tim Thomas and Columbus’s Steve Mason. 

My personal thoughts on this is that Backstrom will come in second in the voting.  Backstrom was certainly the Wild’s best player, and Josh Harding’s 3-9-1 record on the season certainly helps Backstrom’s cause, but let’s not forget that Harding posted extremely impressive stats during those 13 games as well.  The way I look at it is like this:

  • Without Mason, the Jackets miss the playoffs AND are likely to have a lottery pick in the top six.
  • Without Backstrom, the Wild are likely to have a lottery pick in the top ten.
  • Without Thomas, the Bruins probably wouldn’t have won the conference, but still likely would have made the playoffs.

To me, what that equates to is that Mason will get the Calder-Vezina sweep this season (and, honestly, I think there’s a pretty good argument for him getting the Hart as well, but that’s neither here nor there.)  Backstrom had a phenomenal season and, let’s be honest…If the Wild make the playoffs, there’s no question that he’s up there for the frontrunner.  The bottom line is that, as important as he was this season to our team, Mason was just a touch more important in their run.

Aeros Advance to Round Two
Leave it to the farm team of a Minnesota team to take every opportunity to give their fans more hockey.  Houston won game seven against the Peoria Rivermen 5-2 on the strength of goals by Krys Kolanos, Marco Rosa and Maxim Noreau as well as empty netters by Corey Locke and Mitch Love.  Goaltender Anton Khudobin was credited with the win, saving 19 or 21 shots.

Houston advances now to play the first seeded Milwaukee Admirals in what should prove to be an intriguing match up; at least from a front office point of view.  Milwaukee is the farm team for Nashville, making it Craig Leipold’s current farm team vs. his former farm team.  In other words, two candidates for the Minnesota Wild GM position (Tom Lynn and Paul Fenton) fighting it out for GM supremacy, though I doubt this series would be the deciding factor in one or the other getting the job.

Houston has three of the top 20 scoring leaders thus far for the playoffs, with Corey Locke third in scoring (4-5-9), Matt Beaudoin sixth (2-6-8) and Krys Kolanos sixteenth (2-4-6).  Meanwhile, Khudobin is trucking along with a 4-3 record, a 2.45 GAA and a .906 Sv Pct, as well as one shutout.  The most interesting stat?  Corey Lock has 24 penalty minutes.  Anyone care to explain that one to me??

Wild Sign Carson McMillian
The Wild also have signed another of their 2007 draft picks to an entry level deal.  Carson McMillian of the Calgary Hitmen has been signed to a three-year, entry level deal.  McMillian was in his fourth season with the Hitmen this season and recorded career highs in goals (31), assists (41), points (72) and penalty minutes (93).  On top of that, he added seven game winners, five powerplay tallies and four shorties.  It will be interesting to see how McMillian fares in Houston next season, as he is certainly an intriguing player for this organization (one that has rarely seen success at drafting in the later rounds). 

Seventh Heaven
There are two game sevens on the docket tonight and, honestly, does it get ANY better than a Game Seven in the NHL Playoffs?  It’s win or go home for four teams and it’s going to be I-N-T-E-N-S-E!!!  Now I typically shy away from predictions (for those unable to pick up on sarcasm through text, I’ll note it here), but I feel inclined to share my views on these two games.

2) Washington v. 7) NY Rangers - I made the observation a few days ago that, if any team is equipped to come back from a 3-1 defecit, the Capitals were certainly one of them.  It took a few games for the Caps to realize that they can’t shoot at Lundqvist’s mattresses (and for Boudreau to realize that he can’t have Theodore in nets), but once the Caps got it figured out and started executing their gameplan, they started rolling.  Torts will be back on the bench for the Rangers after his Game 5 hissy fit and, if I were a Caps fan, I wouldn’t relish sitting behind him because he’ll likely be packing for this one.

The Rangers Win If: They score first.  If they can do that, they can tighten up around Lundqvist and clog up the neutral zone.  In their three wins, the Rangers have proven that they can give the Caps fits when they do this.  The Caps offensive stars need room to skate in order to be effective, and if the Rangers are protecting a lead, they can afford to tighten up and not give the Caps the space to skate

The Capitals Win If: They get to Lundqvist early and often.  Not necessarily score, but pepper him with shots.  He’s been pulled in two straight games and they can’t afford to let him gain any confidence.  Crash the net, get in his way, do anything and everything they can to disrupt his game.  If that means buzzing him and taking  a goalie interference penalty early on, that’s what they have to do.  Get in his head and this one’s over.

My Prediction: Washington 4 New York 2

(3) New Jersey Devils v. 6) Carolina Hurricanes – This series has been the epitome of even.  Neither team has won more than one game in a row and only two of the six games have been decided by more than one goal.  At the onset of the series, everyone expected this to come down to goaltending and, tonight, it will.  Both Ward and Brodeur will be at their best and this game will be very, very tightly played.

The Devils Win If: Their offense shows up early.  This team has an absolutely explosive offense.  The problem is that they have been extremely inconsistent this series.  One game, they’ll look like absolute world beaters; the next, they look like they couldn’t find the back of the net if it were the size of the broad side of a barn.  If they come out of the gates ready to skate hard and ready to play, they’ll gain the advantage over Carolina.  If they falter, though, Carolina will exploit this.

The ‘Canes Win If: Cam Ward plays like he did in Games 5 and 6.  Ward is the catalyst for this team.  If he’s playing well, this team gains confidence and can steamroll opponents.  This team does not have the defense to protect Ward if he’s playing poorly and that can lead to a collapse if he is.  A couple big saves early and Ward’s confidence will go through the roof.  If this happens, it gets exponentially harder for the Devils to take ahold of this game and get any sort of momentum.

My Prediction: Carolina 3 New Jersey 2 (OT)

April 28, 2009 | Filed Under Minnesota Wild, NHL, Playoffs | 2 Comments 

One Weekend To Rule Them All

So it’s come to this.

One weekend to give us a shot at deciding our season.  Two games, back-to-back, one here, one in Columbus.  In order to have a shot at the playoffs, we need to win out and hope for some luck.

Here are some stats to give you an idea of the uphill battle that we have in front of us:

  • Winning out would mean that we would have won three games in a row.  The last time the team did this?  November.  In fact, you have to go back to February to find the last time we won two in a row.
  • Our games are against Nashville and Columbus respectively.  The Wild are 1-2-0 against Nashville this season, while outscoring the Preds 6-5 and have been shut out in the teams’ last two meetings.  Against Columbus, the Wild are 2-1-0 with one shootout win and are knotted in goals at 7 a piece. 
  • Minnesota and Nashville are tied for 25th in the league with 205 goals for.  The Wild are 2nd in the league with 193 goals against, while the Predators are 10th with 222 goals against.  Columbus, meanwhile, is 21st in the league with 222 goals for and 9th in the league with 221 goals against.
  • The Wild’s powerplay remains in the top ten of the league, at 19.6% (good for 10th) and their penalty kill is 2nd at 87.7%.  Nashville and Columbus’s powerplays are 15.6% (26th) and 12.8% (30th) respectively, while their penalty kills are 83.6% (4th) and 82.3% (13th) respectively.
  • Rick Nash has scored 11 pts in his last 7 games for Columbus, while Steve Sullivan has 8 in his last 6 games for Nashville.  Our hottest players are Andrew Brunette, who has 8 points in his last 7 games and Marian Gaborik, who has 4 in his last 2 games.
  • Niklas Backstrom is 2-1-0, with a 1.34 GAA and a .960 Sv Pct in his last 3 GPI, while Pekka Rinne of Nashville is 1-1-0, with a 3.39 GA and a .860 Sv Pct in his last 2 GPI and Steve Mason of Columbus is 1-0-1, with a 1.87 GAA and a .923 Sv Pct in his last 2 GPI.
  • In their last 10 games, the Wild are 5-4-1, while the Blue Jackets are 5-1-4 and the Predators are 4-3-3.
  • The Wild are 7-9-0 in games with 0 days off (@Columbus) this season and 6-6-2 in games with 2 days off (v. Nashville).  Nashville, meanwhile, is 6-4-2 in games with 0 days off and Columbus is 7-8-4 in games with 0 days off.
  • In games on weekdays (Nashville), the Wild are 24-18-7, while the Preds are 21-25-8.  On games on weekends (Columbus), the Wild are 14-15-2 while the Blue Jackets are 11-13-5.

Basically, what all those stats add up to is that the Wild are playing two pretty good teams over the next two nights and have an uphill battle.  They do, however, have some hope.

The team has two scenarios in which they can sneak into the playoffs.  Both involve the team winning out, but the Wild can make the playoffs IF…

Anaheim loses in regulation, both at home to Dallas and at Phoenix.

OR…

St. Louis goes 0-1-1 in its final two games, one at home against Columbus and the other in Colorado.  Also, if the Blues lose out in regulation, the Wild would be in the playoffs as well.

The Wild can become the West’s seventh seed also if both the Ducks and Blues lose out in regulation.

Head spinning yet?

It gets worse if the Preds beat Detroit tonight and the Wild beats the Preds in OT…But we’ll save that for another day.

Bottom Line: The Wild need to win out.  Plain and simple.  If they can’t do that, then they had best warm up their golf swings for another long summer.

April 9, 2009 | Filed Under Minnesota Wild, Playoffs | Leave a Comment 

Playoff Picture

Where’s Jim Mora when you need him?

Playoffs?!?  Playoffs!!?!

Okay, okay, so the reference has probably been beaten to death every single season for every sport since Mora’s famous outburst.  The fact remains, however, that the playoffs are bearing down upon us.  While the field has yet to be set, we do have a pretty good idea of who is going to be in the big show.  We’ll be rating the potential playoff match ups on our newly patented Mora-Meter.  One Mora would be the equivalent of watching the World Series of Gin Rummy played on ESPN (my guess as to what the next program to move into the Worldwide Leader instead of hockey) while five Mora’s would be a series that would lead to so much excitement that it would drive Jim Mora into a frenzy that would leave him frothing at the mouth.

So here you have it.  The playoff match ups, if the playoffs started today, complete with the new and improved Mora-Meter!

Western Conference
#1 San Jose Sharks v. #8 Nashville Predators
Analysis: The Nashville Predators are like that kid in high school that you never wanted to hang out with, but always somehow ended up getting invited wherever you went.  Over the last few seasons the Preds have been the whipping boy of the NHL, more specifically from Canadian fans, about how southern expansion just flat out doesn’t work.  The bottom line is, however, that the Preds continue to put a good package on the ice and continue to make the playoffs no matter what.  In this series, they’d be running up against a Sharks team that will be hellbent to prove that they can perform in the playoffs.  I don’t envy anyone in the position that the Preds are in, but if anyone can pull off a first round upset, it’s them.  This could be an intriguing series; however, it could just as easily be a case of the Sharks doing their thing and the Predators hanging on for dear life.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora

#2 Detroit Red Wings v. #7 Anaheim Ducks
Analysis: The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Ducks bounced the Wings en route to a Stanley Cup Championship.  Can anyone think of anything more intriguing than the last two Stanley Cup Champions facing off and in the first round no less?  The biggest swing in this match up is that the Ducks still play like they’re the class bully, while the Red Wings bully teams by skating circles around them.  What makes this series even more interesting is the fact that the Wings and the Ducks quite simply don’t like each other.  Lest we forget Chris Pronger attempting to remove Tomas Holmstrom’s head from his body, amongst other things transpiring between the two teams that cultivated the bad blood in their last post season meeting.  The Red Wings always seem to be a step ahead of the NHL; however, this season, their goaltending could be their Achillies Heel and with a potent Ducks powerplay, it would make for some great playoff hockey.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora mora

#3 Vancouver Canucks v. #6 Columbus Blue Jackets
Analysis: Is it bad that there’s a large part of me that really wants Vancouver to slide down so that Calgary takes this spot?  I mean, let’s be honest.  I’m a Wild fan.  I have no vested interest in the playoffs to mention at the moment (maybe by the last game of the season…A guy can dream, right?) so I don’t really care who wins the division, other than the fact that I just want to watch an entertaining playoff series.  To me, there would be no more interesting series than a Flames/Jackets and Canucks/’Hawks series, because the teams just don’t like each other.  But I digress.  In this one, honestly, there’s not really any appreciable storylines to speak of, nor do either of the teams play extremely exciting hockey.  On one side, the Blue Jackets are almost 100% playoff un-tested (save for a few players), while the ‘Nucks have some star players with a propensity to do a disappearing act in the playoffs.  All of this adds up to a series that could prove to be pretty uneventful; though worth watching to watch how the Jackets respond to playoff hockey.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora

#4 Chicago Blackhawks v. #5 Calgary Flames
Analysis: As much as I would love to watch the ‘Hawks fight play the ‘Nucks, I think this series would be extremely entertaining to watch.  First, you have a rematch in net of the ’03-’04 Cup Finals (Kipper v. Bulin), then you’ve got two teams with some very dynamic players (Kane, Toews and Havlat v. Iginla, Cammalleri and Jokinen) and finally you’ve got two teams with some fantastic defensemen (Seabrook and Keith v. Phaneuf and Regher).  This could become the best series in the first round if it stays this way.  Plus, if Phaneuf keeps playing the way he has been, you could find yourself looking at a very formidable “sloppy” second defensive pairing of Phaneuf and Leopold.  Sorry.  Couldn’t resist.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora mora mora

Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Bruins v. #8 Montreal Canadiens
Analysis: How’s this for a role reversal?  The exact match up of last season’s first round, just with home ice turned around.  If both teams are on their game, this could be an exciting series to watch.  The problem is that both teams have battled inconsistency since the All Star Break.  The biggest thing to look forward to, however, is that these two teams always get up to play one another.  Look at last season’s first round.  A seven-game slugfest that was probably the most entertaining series in all the playoffs.  Plus, there’s also always the chance that you could hear Jack Edwards’ maniacal laugh again.  That in and of itself is reason enough to watch.  All of this equals one amazingly entertaining first round series.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora mora thm-jack-edwards

#2 Washington Capitals v. #7 New York Rangers
Analysis: Honestly, this is another that I wish was a little different, but beggars can’t be choosers, right?  This one, well, this could be interesting.  On one end you’ve got the Caps’ unbelievable offens and on the other you’ve got the Rangers’ unbelievable goaltender.  Coach John Tortorella has helped the Rangers find their game again; however, can he put a stop to the attack of the Capitals?  On the other side of things, you’ve got the Rangers’ aneimic offense squaring off against the Caps’ inconsistent goalie.  This could either be a very high scoring series or a series where you get nothing at all.  Any series pitting a high powered offense against a solid goaltender, however, can prove to be a fun series to watch.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora mora

#3 New Jersey Devils v. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Analysis: Ok.  So can someone please explain to me if the Devils are just coasting to the playoffs or if something is going on and when, exactly, Lou is going to place himself behind the bench yet again?  Alright.  I feel better now.  Now that I’ve said my piece, this could be a very one sided series if the Devils don’t right the ship and quick.  The ‘Canes have had success against Newark’s finest this season, and if the Devils back into the playoffs this could get ugly quick.  Looking at the potential match up, the ‘Canes match up quite nicely against the Devil and have the hot hand.  Both teams have a solid defense and an under rated offense.  There should be some very tightly contested games in this series and some good, physical play.
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora

#4 Philadelphia Flyers v. #5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Analysis: The Broadstreet Bullies against the NHL’s wunderkid.  I don’t see how it could get much better than this; a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals.  The Flyers were ran out of town by the Pens in the ECF last season, but this is also a Flyers team that has gained a lot more character since then, not in turnover of players but just in experience.  The big question mark for both teams is definitely in net and, in all honesty, that could lead to a very entertaining series.  These two teams are also division rivals and flat out don’t like each other.  That’s good enough in my book!
Mora-Meter: mora mora mora mora mora

So there you have it.  My thoughts on the current playoff picture.

Also, coming next week will be the first intrim show of Wild Nation.  Join myself and Nick in New York next week as we talk about all things Wild!  We will have a time and date set for our first show sometime this weekend.

April 2, 2009 | Filed Under NHL, Playoffs | Leave a Comment 

Wild's Hopes Dwindling

The Wild got an all important point last night in their overtime defeat to the Vancouver Canucks.  The problem?  They needed to make it two points badly.

Their desperation certainly showed in the game, as they outshot the Canucks by a margin of 34-19 and held Vancouver to zero shots in the third period.  The Wild were buzzing all night long and peppered Roberto Luongo with shot after shot after shot.  The only problem was that they ran into Roberto Luongo.  Luongo was dazzling last night, stoning the Wild at every turn.  That and some good fortune for the Canucks was the difference in this game.

With the loss, the Wild’s “tragic number” has shrunk to 7 according to nhlplayoffrace.com and the team’s chances at the post season continue to shrink.  According to Hockey Reference’s playoff probability chart, the Wild now have just a 12.8% chance of making the playoffs and are being projected to finish with roughly 86 points.

The advantage for the Wild, however, is that the remainder of the teams directly in front of them play the majority of their remaining games on the road.  While the Wild will need to take care of things on their own end, this certainly bodes well for the team if they can take care of business.  The key part, however, is taking care of business.  Something that this team has not been able to do since the beginning of the season.

To add another wrench into the situation, the St. Louis Blues hold a game in hand over just about everyone around them.

What this equals (other than an enormous headache if you’re trying to figure out every situation) is that the Wild cannot control their own destiny, even if they win out.  It paints a pretty grim picture for the franchise; however, missing the playoffs could be the best thing that could happen for the Wild.  Why you ask?  Well, here’s why:

  • Draft for Success.  The Wild started re-stocking their defensive corps in last season’s draft.  With Anthony Aiello, Tyler Cuma and Justin Falk likely playing in the AHL next season, the Wild’s defensive prospects are looking better than they have in a while.  Meanwhile, however, their forwards are getting thin.  Cal Clutterbuck is the most notable of the forwards that has made the big squad and Peter Olvecky is getting a good, long look as well.  What does this mean?  Well, it means that the Wild doesn’t have a great wealth of top forward prospects.  But, the good news is that this is a draft that is very deep in the first round at forward.  The Wild will certainly end up with a top 15 pick if they miss the playoffs, and it is certainly conceivable that they could end up with a top 10 pick if the lottery goes right.  Two of the three NHL.com mock drafts had the Wild picked to snag the University of Minnesota’s Jordan Schroeder with their first pick if this is the case, while My NHL Draft has the Wild slated to pick Dmitry Kulikov from Drummondville (a defenseman) with their first pick.  Meanwhile, NHL DraftSite has the Wild slated to take Landon Ferraro at 12th.  The bottom line is that the Wild needs some top tier talent at forward.  The picks are at 11th, 10th and 12th respectively; however, if you look at the ISS Rankings, you can see that there are currently only three defensemen slated in the top ten.  If the Wild have the number ten pick, there’s no doubt in my mind that they will use it on a forward.
  • Coaching Turnover.  Mike Russo stated in his blog that he would place the odds at Lemaire returning for next season at about 20-80, meaning 20% that he would return and 80% that he would retire.  I would go even further than that.  Lemaire has seemed frustrated much of this season and no longer appears to be having any sort of fun behind the bench; something that he was even doing through the team’s maddening inconsistency last season.  As much as I love Lemaire, I do think that a coaching change would behoove this team next season.  A change of pace could be exactly what it takes to get this team (which I still believe is a good one) back on track.
  • Do Something, Please.  After two seasons of making the playoffs only to find a first round exit, Doug Risebrough was under immense pressure to round out the team and come back with another contender.  He did not.  After a year of missing the playoffs, he will be under even greater pressure to do something.  He has definite assets that he can barter with at the draft and before free agency; however, he would be best served to make a very large splash and bring some players onto the team that will take this team to the next level.

All in all, the Wild can learn a lot from this season.  If healthy, this team could be a force to be reckoned with.  Unfortunately, they have not been fully healthy all season long.  If the playoffs are missed (which I believe they will be), this team has an interesting off season ahead of them and some big decisions.  They key to how this team comes into next season will be how they respond going forward.

April 1, 2009 | Filed Under Minnesota Wild | Leave a Comment 

Gameday: Wild @ Islanders – 3/25/09

Sans Brent Burns and Mikko Koivu, the Wild rolled into the Big Apple last night and left with a demoralizing loss despite a fantastic game by Niklas Backstrom.  The team dropped from 10th in the West down to 11th, chasing 8th place Anaheim who is two points ahead of them, and two points back from 9th place Nashville.

Ok.  That was the bad news.

The good news?  Tonight we roll into the island to play the league’s bottom team in the New York Islanders.

This is not to say that the Isles should be taken lightly, as they have been hot as of late; however, if there is any team that the Wild could use as a “slump-buster,” this is certainly it.

When you look at the two teams, they have similar stats on paper.  The Wild have only scored a paltry 184 goals this season (good for second last in the West) while the Isles are just two behind them (good for last in the East).  The difference between the two teams, however, has been their defense and goaltending.  The Wild have given up just 180 goals this season (good for third best in the league) while the Isles have given up 234 goals this season (good for eleventh in the East).  The Isles are also having similar problems to the Wild on the blueline; namely, not enough grit.  If the Wild are to be successful against this team tonight, they will need to get into the high traffic areas on the ice and push around an Isles defense that is extremely undersized.  This means that players that like to get their noses dirty in front of and behind the net, such as Owen Nolan and Andrew Brunette, will be key to the Wild’s hopes of victory tonight.

Defensively, the Wild will need to focus on stopping the Isles offensive weapons.  Though young, the Isles still boast some players that have the talent to put the puck in the net; most notably Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey and Sean Bergenheim, not to mention their leading scorer, Mark Streit.  The biggest key to the resurgence of the Islanders over the last few weeks has been their balanced attack.  They have been given the freedom to play spoiler and have taken to it quite nicely and the Wild will have to focus on their entire line up in order to keep the team down.

Goaltending has been a concern for the Isles since the injury of franchise goalie Rick Dipietro; however, Yann Danis has stepped up in his absence and performed marvelously.  A little confidence can go a long way with Danis, and the Wild need to avoid giving him any at all, getting to him early and often.  This will involve shooting the puck and getting it on net; the latter of which the Wild have struggled with all season long.

In the previous meeting this season, the Wild cruised to a 4-1 victory over the Isles, outshooting them 39-16 and dominating for most of the game.  A repeat performance of this would be key to getting the Wild back on track and giving the team confidence heading into a crucial two game swing in Canada against the Flames and the Oilers.

Keys to the Game

  1. Shoot the Puck.  It seems to be common sense, but the Wild have gotten behind in the shots early in too many of their games this season and, as a result, have had to fight back in too many of their games.  Especially with an inexperienced goalie in net, the key to the Wild’s game should be to get traffic in front of him and get the puck on net.  If they can do this, there’s no reason that they can’t have an offensive outburst and win this game walking away.
  2. Be Physical.  The Wild are a team that have been pushed around a little more than they would like this season and it needs to stop.  The blueline especially has been a weak point for the Wild this season in terms of physicality and the Isles are a small team.  The Wild came out with a physical game last night against the Rangers and any carry over from this would be a huge help for the team.
  3. Establish Consistency.  The Wild have lacked consistency all season long, both in the micro and macro views.  In games they often go stretches without pressuring their opponent and oftentimes dig themselves holes during these periods.  If the Wild are able to maintain consistency during the games, this will translate over to the macro view and consistency will begin to be established from game-to-game as well.  This is key for the Wild to win games down the stretch and make a push for the playoffs.

This is a Wild team that can be good.  They just need to find the consistency to do so.  If they’re able to shorten their memories and put their loss last night behind them, they should have no problem handling the Isles.  The question will be if they are able to do just that.

Clutter-Watch 2009: For all intents and purposes, tonight will be the game that Cal Clutterbuck breaks the NHL Record for hits in a season, set by Dustin Brown.  Needing just two more hits to do so, it is very likely that this could be accomplished by the end of the first period, or even his first shift.  As Mike Russo mentioned in his blog, however, I wouldn’t expect much of a fanfare for this.  After all, the statistic has only been around for a few short years.  We could very well be watching young Cal’s statistics next season as well, as he’ll likely be given more responsibility, more ice time and more opportunities to do what he loves to do: hit.

March 25, 2009 | Filed Under Gameday | Leave a Comment 

Tanking the Season?

Around this time of year, you hear the term “tanking the season” quite a bit.

What is tanking the season?  It’s the theory that losing eventually begets winning through a plethora of high draft picks.  The team that is ultimately pointed to for this theory is the Pittsburgh Penguins.  With draft picks of Marc-Andre Fleury (1st Overall in ’03), Evgeni Malkin (2nd Overall in ’04), Sidney Crosby (1st Overall in ’05) and Jordan Staal (2nd Overall in ’06), the team has built a winner through the draft.  Great in theory; however, the team struggled through four losing seasons to get to this point.

This path will make you good for a few years; but once you have to pay all of these players, it makes it much more difficult to ice a winning team.  Just look at the top-heavy Ottawa Senators.  With a considerable amount of coin locked up in Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson (approximately $19M this season and $20M next), the Sens have about 36% of their cap room allocated to three players and that’s if the cap stays where it is right now.  To stay with our example team, in Pittsburgh, they currently have their core of Crosby, Malkin, Staal and Fleury locked up for a total cap hit of approximately $26.65M until the ’12/’13 season at the earliest, not to mention another additional $3.75M for Brooks Orpik.  That’s a total of $30.4M on five players.  If the cap stays where it is, the Pens would have approximately 54% of their cap hit allocated to five players.  A number that I would not be happy with if I were a Pens fan, especially with the impending drop in the cap ceiling.

Conversely, take a look at the Detroit Red Wings.  9 seasons with 100+ points.  They have not missed the playoffs since the ’89-’90 season and have won four Stanley Cups since this 17 season stretch began.  The Red Wings currently have fifteen players that have dressed for them this season that were drafted by the organization.  Of these fifteen, only one (Niklas Kronwall) was drafted in the first round.

So…How have the Red Wings achieved this sort of dominance?  Shrewd late round draft picks (Datsyuk, Zetterberg etc.) combined with shrewd free agent signings (Stuart, Hossa).  In fact, the Red Wings are proof that you do not need to lose to be good.  They are proof that, in fact, a winning tradition and solid management from the top down are a better strategy than “tanking it.”

Why?  The reason is simple.  For a free agent player, or any player for that matter, are you going to give your all for a team that packed it in and stopped trying just a few months earlier?  Are you going to want to come play for a team that just packs it in when the going gets tough?  Are your young players going to benefit from just coasting through games, playing for an early first round draft pick?

For teams on the outside with no hopes of making the playoffs, there is much to play for still.  There is pride.  These late season games are some of the most important for young players, because a late season winning streak can be the difference between a positive off season and an off season spent dwelling on what could have been.

As a fan, I never want to see my team pack it in or tank the season or whatever you want to call it.  I want to see my team fight to the bitter end.  There is nothing that brings a team closer together than adversity and winning in the midst of adversity.  This is what I want from my team.  Not a team that just gives up so that they can get a good draft pick. 

And if there’s a single NHL player out there thinking that way, he’s got no place on the roster of this fan’s team.

March 16, 2009 | Filed Under NHL | 1 Comment 

If the Playoffs Started Today – 3/12/09

It’s that time of the year.  The time when every point matters.  The time where the difference between losing in regulation and losing in overtime could mean a playoff spot.  Both conferences are jam-packed, especially towards the bottom, so we’re going to keep an eye on potential first round match ups and even do a little prognostication as to how the teams match up.  We’ll also keep an eye on who’s on the outside looking in.

And here…we…go…

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Florida Panthers - This is a pretty intriguing match up for the first round.  You’ve got the Bruins, who have been struggling recently against the Panthers who have been one of the biggest surprises of the season.  The Bruins struggles have been in large part to the disappearing acts of Michael Ryder and Blake Wheeler, as well as some inconsistency with the rest of their offense and the Panthers are a scrappy team that may thrive on the close quarters and pressure of the playoffs.  All told, though, it’s hard to think that the Bruins couldn’t pull out a seven game series in this one.  Advantage Boston.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Carolina Hurricanes - If I’m the Devils, Carolina is the absolute last team I would want to face in the first round.  The ‘Canes are buzzing right now and the acquisition of Erik Cole has re-energized Eric Staal.  On the other hand, the Devils have a fresh Martin Brodeur and one of the most dynamic group of forwards in the league.  This series could be an instant classic, with both teams having unlimited amounts of energy as well as fresh and re-energized superstars.  Brodeur ultimately gives the Devils the edge in just about any series, but this one would be fun to watch.  Advantage New Jersey.

(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) Pittsburgh Penguins - Is it just me or would this be the NHL marketing department’s dream come true?  I can’t think of a more compelling match up for the first round and the only thing that I can think of that would be better is if the two teams met in the Conference Finals.  The Pens are the hottest team in the league, while the Caps are, well, the Caps.  The animosity between these two teams has continued to grow throughout the season and a playoff series between the two would send it over the top.  This is also a series that could go either way.  It’s hard to pick a clear cut winner in this one.  Draw.

(4) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (5) Montreal Canadiens - To round out the first round, a Philly/Montreal series?  This could ultimately be some pretty exciting hockey in the first round.  The Flyers were the team that knocked the Habs out of the first round last season and don’t think that the Habs or their fans have forgotten it.  This is another series that could make for an instant classic; mostly because of how well these two teams match up against one another.  Looking at this, it’s very hard to pick a team that would have a distinct advantage, but Philly’s physical game could easily put them over the top.  Advantage Philadelphia.

On The Outside Looking In: With just 15 games remaining in the season, a big part of the Eastern Conference is already eliminated (not necessarily mathmatically, but realistically).  The two that remain in contention are the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers.  Of those two teams, the Rangers have the most realistic chance of supplanting the Panthers in the 8th seed, seeing as how they are one point behind.  Both teams have struggled recently, with the Sabres losing Ryan Miller to injury and the Rangers having to be broken into a new coach, so it’s likely that the way the playoffs sit now could easily be how they sit come the end of the regular season.

Western Conference
(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Nashville Predators - Once again, the Preds are making a hard charge at the playoffs late in the season.  Meanwhile, the Sharks are, well, the Sharks.  They have struggled lately, but are still a strong team and, though he has had a sub-par season by his standars, Evgeni Nabokov is one of the top goalies in the league.  It is pretty hard to think that the Preds could give the Sharks a run for their money as they did with the Wings last season, but if the stars align, anything is possible in the playoffs.  Advantage San Jose.

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Edmonton Oilers - The last time the Wings and Oilers met in the first round, the Wings were bounced unceremoniously en route to the Oilers magical run to the Cup finals.  Don’t expect that to happen this time.  The Red Wings are one of the most talented teams in the league and, despite not having a designated “enforcer,” have a great deal of sand paper on their roster.  Meanwhile, this Oilers team is nowhere near as gritty as the team that contended for the Cup.  The Wings should have no problem in this series.  Advantage Detroit.

(3) Calgary Flames vs. (6) Columbus Blue Jackets - This series is a crap shoot in that there’s really no telling how the majority of Columbus’s roster is going to react to playoff hockey.  They could take to it like a fish to water and fly, or they could flounder.  Looking at the Flames roster, however, it’s very difficult to bet against this team as they have a roster that is even better than the last time they reached the finals.  As hard as it is to discount a team coached by Ken Hitchcock, you can’t look past the talent and depth of the Flames roster.  Advantage Calgary.

(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Vancouver Canucks - This is an interesting series.  The Blackhawks are certainly more talented, but have limited playoff experience, while the Canucks have multiple players on their roster that have been involved in deep Cup runs.  The wildcard for the Canucks, however, is Roberto Luongo.  Time and again he has proven that he’s one of the best in the game, but he’s also only played in the playoffs once (though he was dazzling).  Ultimately, you’ve got to believe that the ‘Hawks talent would win out of the ‘Nucks experience in a seven game series.  Advantage Chicago.

On the Outside Looking In: There are four teams within three points of the playoffs and and one more within four.  The Wild, Stars and Ducks all are within one point of 7th, the Blues are just two points back from them and the Kings are just one back from the Blues.  In a tight playoff race, the extra points can make or break a season.  The team that could have the best shot of squeaking in is the Wild.  They hold a game in hand over both Dallas and Anaheim as well as Nashville and they hold the tiebreaker over Edmonton.  The Wild are a good team mired by inconsistency and they will be getting their most dangerous offensive weapon back soon.  It’s no stretch to think that they could make a solid run at the playoffs in the last weeks of the season.  Both the Ducks and the Stars have been inconsistent at best of late, while the Blues and Kings have been streaky as well.  If one of these five teams finds any modicum of consistency, they could easily streak into the playoffs.

March 12, 2009 | Filed Under NHL, Playoffs | Leave a Comment 

Tuesday's Links

There are a whopping 11 games on the docket for tonight.  Check out NHL.com for the full list, but here are some of the highlights.  First, the nationally televised game on Versus, the Sabres take on the Flyers.  In a battle of division leaders, Calgary visits New Jersey.  With playoff positioning on the line, Florida travels to Pittsburgh to face the red hot Penguins.  Also on the list, the Sharks will try to exact revenge on the Wild after their embarrassing 4-3 OT Loss.

That’s all for now.  Enjoy and make sure you check back for my thoughts on the San Jose/Minnesota tilt tonight!

March 10, 2009 | Filed Under Morning Links | 1 Comment