Mid-Morning Musings: The All Star Game
So, we’ve got ourselves a new format for the All Star game.
That’s what all the buzz has been about for the last couple days, and now the details have come out.
Via Chip Alexander (@ice_chip):
For 2011 All Star game, fans will pick top three forwards, two defensemen and goalie to start. NHL Hockey Ops then will pick 36 players. The players will choose two captains, who will draft teams. There will be 12 rookies selected for Skills Competition. No rookie game. Alternate captains also will be chosen.
Let me tell you – I’m crazy about this idea.
I think this is an absolutely brilliant idea to bring a buzz around the game. Will it make it more competitive? Probably not. But it will make it significantly more interesting.
Greg Wyshynski at Yahoo!’s Puck Daddy blog brought up some burning questions that he had about the format that I think are interesting to read and to ponder about this – a very amusing list, to be sure. But there’s one thing that he brought up as a very interesting point stemming from a Nick Kypreos tweet.
Via Nick Kypreos (@RealKyper):
Hearing tweaks in All-star skills comp is coming too. Goalies believe it or not will participate in shooting accuracy competition. Goalies will participate in fastest skater competition too…
Interesting, to say the least, but Wysh brings up a very good point – should goalies be taking place in the fastest skater? As he put it, that “sounds like a groin pull waiting to happen” and, you know what? I completely agree. We’ve already seen Rick DiPietro injure himself in the Skills Competition; do we really want to put any more duress on the goalies? They’re already facing the shootout competition and breakaway competition – why give them one more chance to tear apart their groin?
But, all-in-all, I think this is a great move by the NHL and one that will make the game significantly more interesting.
Think of the potential stories for this season.
Henrik and Daniel Sedin lining up on opposite sides of one another at center ice for the first time in their careers.
Alexander Ovechkin coming down on a breakaway, only to get stoned by Michael Neuvirth.
Dustin Byfuglien planting his backside in front of Roberto Luongo, playing defense in front of him instead of trying to give him a taste of what he had for dinner the night before.
The intrigue in the match ups is electrifying.
But there is one thing that this fails to address – the lack of intensity.
Now, we all know that the All Star game is never going to have the intensity of, say, game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s just not going to happen. It’s essentially a game of shinny that rewards players for a good season.
Now I, personally, don’t think that the lack of intensity is as big of a problem as many make it out to be. The game is, for all intents and purposes, devoid of any sort of physical play or shot blocking and there’s nothing in the world that’s going to change that. Whether the game is played before, during or after the season, nothing in the world is going to make this the most physical game in the world – it’s just not going to happen.
Think about it. If you’re playing a game of pond hockey with a bunch of your buddies, unless you’re a Grade A prick, you’re not going to lay a shoulder into someone when they’re skating with their head down, nor are you going to throw your body in the way of someone taking a one timer from the point. You’re there for fun, not to accrue any more bumps or bruises.
That’s exactly what the All Star game is. It’s a chance for a bunch of these guys to come out, showcase their skill and just have a fun game of hockey without having to worry about the playoff standings or containing the other team’s star player – it’s just for fun; for the players as well as the fans.
And that’s exactly what this new format pinpoints – the fun.
If you want to make the game more competitive, have it be after the season when a player would have the entire off season to recoup if they pull a groin or tweak something or another. Give the winning team a bonus – not just the MVP, but the entire team. Do anything you’d like.
But for right now, the game represents fun – plain and simple. It’s a bunch of buddies going out and having a good time playing some shinny.
Why does it need to be any more?
Wild Down Canucks in a Big Way
On Sunday, the message was sent. On Tuesday, it was apparent that it was received.
58 seconds into the game, the Vancouver Canucks awoke the sleeping beast that was the Minnesota Wild following the bag skate to end all bag skates and the Wild, for the remainder of the first and the entirety of the second were a dominant team – one that desperately needed to show up for this one.
The defense tightened up around Niklas Backstrom after a shaky start that saw Marek Zidlicky make a huge error, leaving Daniel Sedin wide open on the back door when Backstrom had to come out to challenge the shooter, and the offense responded well as it was all Wild from then on out.
Zidlicky made up for his early gaffe and tied the game then, just over one minute later Guillaume Latendresse responded to Todd Richards’ challenge scoring one and then, near the end of the period, assisting on Clutterbuck’s second of the season.
The Wild kept pouring it on in the second with three goals in six minutes with goals from John Madden, Andrew Brunette and Matt Cullen to put the Wild up big heading into the third.
In the third, the Canucks got one late goal off of a nice shot from Daniel Sedin, but it was a fast-paced period and one that was surprisingly subdued after the fireworks that were taking place as tensions boiled over in the second.
But everyone was on the same page in this one and the team did exactly what the buzzwords wanted them to – they competed. They were scrappy, they hit, they got to the net; the bottom line is they did everything they needed to do to win and, surprise, surprise, they won.
Random Thoughts
- Once again, the Wild came through on the defensive end. Backstrom played great in net again and, once again, got help in front of him; which always helps. As I mentioned before, the part of the game that Backs really struggles with is the athletic and, when the defense is on, they clear the second and third chances away from the front of the net that are a thorn in Backstrom’s side – tonight, they did that in a big way and Backs reward them with another strong performance.
- Latendresse responded in a big way tonight. He still isn’t at the same level he was last season, but you could tell that he not only felt more comfortable but felt more confident as well. His play isn’t measured in the number of shots he gets, but in the plays he creates. His size and skill are all that he needs to create chances both for himself and for his linemates. He did just that today, using his speed and size to give him the space to get to the back door and get the puck through to Luongo and using his vision to set up Clutterbuck’s goal as well.
- How stupid does Rick Rypien have to be? Not only does he punch Brad Staubitz after he is being held down by a linesman, he gets physical with a linesman and then with a fan in the crowd. Now, there’s been speculation of a suspension of anywhere between 5 and 30 games. So, you be the judge:
My guess? The suspension will be closer to 10 games than 30 – this was no Ron Artest situation – but all of the speculation should be true. Rypien will be sitting for a long period of time.
- Part of me knows that the production won’t continue, but Matt Cullen had another multi-point night and continues to be the Wild’s best player. Cullen is not only their powerplay quarterback, he’s the pivot on the line that could make or break the team. Now, there’s no doubt that he’s not a 90+ point producer, or probably not even an 80+ point producer and that he’s going to have to come back down to earth eventually, but if he keeps getting this sort of time with the man advantage, there’s no doubt that he will rack up a career high in points by the time the season is over.
Wild Nation’s No Longer Ridiculously Early Season Previews: The Northwest Division
It wasn’t long ago that the Northwest Division was one of the toughest divisions in the NHL.
The 2002-03 season saw four of its five teams qualify for the playoffs and, up until the 2008-09 season, the division qualified at least three of its teams for the playoffs every season.
The last two seasons, however, have seen an interesting disparity in the division begin to arise and it’s now become a matter of the haves versus the have-nots. Last season saw two teams pick in the top-10 and would have seen one more in the top-15 had Calgary not sold its soul to Phoenix for Olli Jokinen.
The season before saw both Minnesota and Edmonton starting out in the top-15 as well; needless to say, the division’s competitiveness is waning at the moment.
So how will they match up this season?
Calgary Flames – Flames General Manager Daryl Sutter is either going to be lauded as a genius or be burnt in effigy following this season.
Sutter has been largely ineffective at running the team in a salary cap world and has found himself forced up against the cap more often than not and has seen his team go from one that was one win away from winning the Stanley Cup to one that is struggling to keep their heads above water and is no longer a shoe-in to make the playoffs.
Sutter responded to missing the playoffs by bringing in two players that were largely ineffective in their previous stints in Calgary. First, there’s Olli Jokinen, who quickly feel out of favor after a solid stint with the team after being traded there but didn’t seem suited for the new system that Brent Sutter brought with him to the team. Then there’s Alex Tanguay who returns to the team after two seasons away. Tanguay was, again, effective in his first season with the Flames as a point-per-game player under Jim Playfair, but when Mike Keenan came in Tanguay just couldn’t find his stride.
IF these two players can find their form with the Flames and Jarome Iginla can prove that last season’s 69 point performance was an aberration, this could be an effective team. But these two players have been in decline over the past few seasons leaving many to question whether or not their best days are behind them.
On defense, the Flames are anchored by Jay Bouwmeester and Robyn Regher. Bouwmeester, last season, seemed to not be able to cope with the added pressure of being in a hockey-crazed town such as Calgary but will have a big opportunity to rebound with his first full season as Calgary’s top defenseman with Dion Phaneuf now in Toronto.
Regher, meanwhile, will provide the same thing that he always has – a hard-nosed, gritty defenseman. He’s not going to put up the gaudy numbers of Mike Green, but he’s the type of heart and soul guy that can really help a team out.
Past Bouwmeester and Regher, the Flames can turn to Mark Giordano and Ian White, both of whom had terrific seasons with the Flames last season and are looking to build on their solid seasons. Giordano put up career highs in nearly every statistical category and proved that he was capable of being the defenseman that the Flames thought he could be when they signed him in 2004. White, meanwhile, was probably the best cog that the Flames received in their trade for Phaneuf. White put up 12 points in 27 games en route to a career season split between the Leafs and the Flames. If he can continue that performance in 2010, there’s no doubt the Flames could have a formidable blueline.
In net, the Flames will again rest their hopes squarely on the shoulders of Miikka Kiprusoff.
Since coming over from San Jose, Kipper has been a mainstay in net for the Flames and seemed to return to form last season after two subpar years. While Kipper may have led the league in losses last season, it certainly wasn’t for a lack of trying as his goals against average and save percentage were the best they’d been since the ’06-’07 season.
What the Flames have to manage, though, is whether or not Kipper is able to handle the amount of games that he’ll be getting in net. Behind him will be Henrik Karlsson, who the team signed in the off season. Karlsson played marvelously for Farjestad last season and the hope is that he’ll provide a better back up option than Vesa Toskala.
The pieces are all ready for the Flames this season and the hope is that they will all fall into place. If they do, they could be contending for the Division crown once again. But, if they don’t as many fear that they won’t, they’ll be a bubble team for the playoffs once again.
Colorado Avalanche – There are a lot of questions surrounding the Colorado Avalanche this season.
First and foremost is whether or not last season’s run to the playoffs was a fluke or whether this team is the real deal.
The team returns every single one of their key players from their playoff run last year and, with $18 million in cap space, has a lot of wiggle room to improve their roster throughout the season.
The forward crew will again be quite young and inexperienced, though not as inexperienced as last season. The big question marks will be whether or not their key forwards can replicate their impressive seasons that they had last year.
Chris Stewart is freshly signed and looking to build on his breakout season, which is the first extremely impressive season of his pro career. The fact that 17 of his 28 goals came in the second half of the season, however, is very promising and he’s certainly going to get his share of ice time.
In addition to Stewart, both Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene should continue to improve, though Stastny will be looked upon to set up some of the team’s goal scorers more than he’ll be expected to score himself. Look for Duchene, however, to take his next step towards being one of the league’s top superstars heading into his sophomore season. He likely won’t be as explosive as Steve Stamkos was in his second year, but Duchene will certainly get the job done for the Avs.
Peter Mueller is likely not as productive as his 20 points in 15 games last season suggests, but it does show that he is as explosive as they come. If he can carry a hot streak through a good part of the season, he could have a productive season for the Avs and give them another scoring threat.
On defense, the team has two kinds of defensemen — either ones who are extremely mobile or ones who are barely able to take the ice without the use of a walker.
All kidding aside, the Avs have a couple defensemen that are certainly either starting or in the waning of their career in Scott Hannan and Adam Foote. The good news, though, is that these two are both character players and both able to impart good leadership and good knowledge on the younger players of the team.
Past them, they have John-Michael Liles, who is good for 30-plus points and also good for a headache for any fan of the team watching. Players like Kyle Quincey and Kyle Cumiskey are still growing and are looking like they could turn into top flight defensemen for the organization.
In net, it’s pretty safe to say that Craig Anderson has answered all questions about his ability to perform. Last season was really his coming out party, as he finally had success in a full time starter’s role. That success will likely continue on into this season as the team has had barely any turnover from last season.
If Anderson can stay healthy and their young players can continue their progression and don’t have any major steps backwards, it’s safe to say that the Avs could once again be in the thick of things in the playoff race.
Edmonton Oilers – Well, there’s good news on the horizon for Edmonton fans.
The Oilers can only get better, because they certainly can’t get much worse.
To say that last season was a disaster for Edmonton would be an understatement, to say the least. The franchise had their lowest point total since the 1992-93 season and their lowest point percentage total since the 1980-81 season.
Suffice it to say, it was a bad year.
I’m sorry to say that this season probably won’t be much better, but I can say that it will be better.
Young guns Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle will be on the roster this season and will get plenty of time to show what they can do. Will any of the there be rookie sensations the like of Crosby or Ovechkin? Probably not. But they will be upgrades over what the Oilers had last season and that is something that fans should take heart in.
In addition to their big three, the Oilers will also get a full season from Ales Hemsky, which likely would have helped them tremendously last season. Hemsky, Sam Gagner and Gilbert Brule all missed time due to injuries last season which likely would have made a serious impact on the team. With Hemsky fully healthy and playing on Gagner’s wing, and likely across from Dustin Penner, the forward unit will be a much improved unit over last season’s.
On defense the team is still looking to move the albatross contract of Sheldon Souray, but the good news is that they have a serviceable defensive unit behind him.
Ryan Whitney and newcomer (and underrated free agency signing) Kurtis Foster will find themselves manning the point on the powerplay and players like Jim Vandermeer and Tom Gilbert add a bit of character to the blueline. Ladislav Smid and Jason Strudwick also provide a bit of oomph on the back end, but the unit will have to get better at limiting opponents scoring chances, on a whole, if the team is going to climb from the cellar.
One of the biggest questions will be in net.
Namely, will Nikolai Khabibulin be healthy enough (or free enough) to reclaim his duty as starting goaltender and give the team some stability in net.
If he is it gives the team somewhat of a luxury that they haven’t had in recent years – the ability to relax and know that their goaltender will be there and, at times, be able to bail them out.
If he’s not, however, the team is back to the uncertainty of a goalie tandem of Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk – something that I don’t imagine any fan is looking forward to.
As I said previously, this season isn’t going to be great for the Oilers. They still have a way to go to get back to the level of an elite team. But it will be a great improvement over last season – and that’s a start.
Minnesota Wild – How much longer will the State of Hockey tolerate a sub-par team on the ice?
Well, if things don’t go well this season, owner Craig Leipold may very well find out.
Last season was an unbelievable disappointment for Wild fans and the fact that the team had a point percentage of above .500% for the eighth straight season was little consolation.
But, the good news is that the old regime’s players are beginning to cycle through and be replaced by players that are more conducive to the new style of play that the team is aspiring towards.
Added to the roster are Matt Cullen, Eric Nystrom and John Madden – three players that are both talented and gritty. Cullen will be expected to fill in the ever elusive second-line center role that the team has been searching for now for years and will likely be slotted in between Guillaume Latendresse and Martin Havlat.
Now the team’s lack of success isn’t to say that they don’t have talent up front, but there are far too many question marks to be able to concretely say that they are going to be a top team.
If Latendresse can continue to perform like he did last season (25 goals in 55 games for Minnesota) and if Havlat can find the form that caused Minnesota to sign him to a lucrative free agency contract, it’s certainly going to be a welcome addition.
On top of these two, the biggest question mark up front lies on the performance of Pierre-Marc Bouchard. When healthy, Bouchard can be one of the game’s elite playmakers, but he has struggled with injuries for the last season and a quarter and his production has not been up to par because of that. Last season, he missed the entire year with a concussion, but he has been scrimmaging at pro camps leading up to training camp and he will likely play at some point this season, though it is not known when.
If he can come back and play his game, he will certainly be a difference maker on the ice.
On defense, again, the team is faced with injury questions.
Brent Burns had a breakout season three seasons ago, but the last two years he has been mired with injury and inconsistency. If he can return to the player that he is capable of being, he will be a dangerous force on Minnesota’s blueline. If he doesn’t, though, he becomes little more than a defensive liability and a player that the team is reluctant to turn to when the going gets tough.
The Wild will also be hoping that defenseman Cam Barker can find his game again after a subpar performance last season. Barker is certainly better than his 21 point season indicated, but he will have to find that offensive mind frame and physical edge if he is to make an impact.
Also up in the air is the Wild’s sixth defensive spot.
Currently, it is thought that the spot will go to a younger defenseman – Clayton Stoner, Nate Prosser and Marco Scandella are all names that have been mentioned. The biggest concern, however, is that these three only have a handful of NHL games between them and, though they have performed well at times, none have the body of work that would lead one to think that they could handle a full season.
In net, the Wild are again looking at the familiar duo of Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding, but that is not to say that there are not questions there.
Harding started slow last season, but gained his legs late and helped steady the boat when Backstrom was underperforming. Backstrom, on the other hand, struggled much of last season and a lot of that is being attributed to the fact that the team’s system is no longer as goalie friendly as it once was.
I, for one, don’t believe that Backstrom is nearly as bad as he looked last season and, with a little help I believe he could be right back where he was in seasons past. He’s a good goaltender that was, unfortunately, not given much help last season and I would look for him to rebound with a better season this year.
Overall, I don’t see the Wild contending for a playoff spot this season. While they have talent, not all of the players are in place for them to make a playoff push. That being said, they do have talent and if everything falls into place I could easily be proved wrong.
Vancouver Canucks – It may be the pre season, but the hype machine is already in full swing for the ‘Nucks.
It started with Roberto Luongo stepping down as the team’s captain and, as training camps begin, the Canucks are again one of the front runners to make a move deep into the playoffs. But will they be able to shake the monkey off their backs and make it to the Stanley Cup Finals?
At forward, the mantra will likely be maintain.
The team returns most all of their key forwards from last season, but the biggest question will be whether or not their top three can keep it going. Henrik Sedin is one year removed from a remarkable career season, and his brother Daniel would have been right there with him were it not for injury. Ryan Kesler put up career numbers last season. Now, the question that needs to be answered is was that their ceiling or are they capable of repeating.
With the Sedins, I’d be tempted to say that they are very capable of repeating. The two have long been one of the most potent duos in the league and that isn’t likely to change. Will it be another 100-plus point season for one, or both of them? Probably not. But I don’t think that another very strong performance by the two is out of the question.
Kesler, however, may have hit his peak at 75 points – a respectable number, to be sure. The team is deep in scoring, but will need Mikael Samuelsson to continue his scoring ways, as he scored more than 20 goals for just the second time in his career. On top of that, they will look at Mason Raymond to take on an increased role and continue his development.
The addition of Manny Malhotra will help the team’s checking line and their penalty kill, but won’t be much more than that. But that’s also why he was brought in. He’s a reliable checker and a solid penalty killer, which will only help the Canucks this season.
On defense, the team addressed their significant lack of grit the last couple years by bringing in Keith Ballard and Dan Hamhuis. Along with Bieksa, Salo, Edler and Ehrhoff, the ‘Nucks top-six defensemen all make over $3 million and, with the team $3 million over the cap heading into the season, will likely need to move one of them.
But, that being said, Hamhuis and Ballard are a huge upgrade over their previous defensive unit and the team certainly is looking better on the blueline than they have in previous seasons. With that being a huge concern for the Canucks, their fans should no longer be worried. This is a defensive unit, regardless of whether or not a move is made, that can handle the physical play of clubs bigger and stronger than them and will help protect Roberto Luongo much better.
Speaking of Luongo, he’s once again in net for the Cancucks in potentially the most uninteresting portion of the team to talk about.
Luongo’s in net, Schnieder’s behind him. There’s no question about the performance of either of the two and there’s no uncertainty about anything that is going on here. The only thing that could derail them in net is injuries, but that isn’t typically a concern of Bobby Lou.
Overall, this is the easiest to call. The Canucks will be back in the playoffs, just like they will win the division again. There aren’t any questions about any of these things.
Predictions
Alright. Here we go. This is how I think the Northwest will shape up:
1) Vancouver Canucks
2) Calgary Flames
3) Colorado Avalanche
4) Minnesota Wild
5) Edmonton Oilers
To be honest, the only for sure playoff team in this division is the Canucks. Both the Flames and Avs are bubble teams, though I could see both making the playoffs if everything aligns.
Up Next: The Pacific Division
Thank the Hockey Gods It’s Over; My Thoughts on Kovalchuk and the CBA
It’s finally happened! Pigs are flying! Hell has frozen over!
Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract with the New Jersey Devils has FINALLY been approved by the NHL. (Did anyone really think that it wouldn’t be after he started dropping hints that the KHL was becoming an option?)
The final details for the contract is 15-years for $100 million as opposed to 17-years for $102 million. It’s now a cap hit of $6.67 million per year as opposed to $6 million per year and, well, yeah. If you’re thinking that the difference is pretty absurd, you’d probably be right.
When you compare the two deals, it looks like this.
Old Deal
2010-11: $6 million
2011-12: $6 million
2012-13: $11.5 million
2013-14: $11.5 million
2014-15: $11.5 million
2015-16: $11.5 million
2016-17: $11.5 million
2017-18: $10.5 million
2018-19: $8.5 million
2019-20: $6.5 million
2020-21: $3.5 million
2021-22: $750,000
2022-23: $550,000
2023-24: $550,000
2024-25: $550,000
2025-26: $550,000
2026-27: $550,000
New Deal
2010-11: $6 million
2011-12: $6 million
2012-13: $11 million
2013-14: $11.3 million
2014-15: $11.3 million
2015-16: $11.6 million
2016-17: $11.8 million
2017-18: $10 million
2018-19: $7 million
2019-20: $4 million
2020-21: $1 million
2021-22: $1 million
2022-23: $1 million
2023-24: $3 million
2024-25: $4 million
So, when you compare the two, there really isn’t that much difference other than a higher high salary ($11.8M in the 2016-17 season as opposed to $11.5M in the 2012-2017 season), a higher low salary ($1M as opposed to $550k) and two years at the tail end of the contract that really make you go, “Huh?”
So the league accepted this, grandfathering it in before the new CBA amendment (don’t worry, that discussion is coming) and the Devils now find themselves in a Chicago-style pickle – they need to shed salary before the season starts.
Without Kovalchuk’s contract, Cap Geek had the Devils sitting exactly $3,698,334 under the salary cap of $59.4 million. With the Kovie Kontrakt, the Devils cap number goes up to $63,108,333 or $3,708,333 over the salary cap.
Now, it’s important to realize that the Devils’ cap number prior to the Kovalchuk signing was also with just 20 roster players. 11 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies. A typical “full” roster is 23. So, basically they need to shed enough salary to both fit Kovalchuk under the cap and field a full roster.
Soooooooo…Who do you drop?
Jamie Langenbrunner, likely won’t be a casualty. In addition to being the team’s captain and a heart and soul type player, he only has one year left on his contract with a no-trade clause.
The player that most Devils fans would LOVE to see on the chopping block, Brian Rolston, likely won’t be either. Rolston’s stats have declined in a large way since he left Minnesota and, while his talent may not have, he’s certainly not the same player that scored 30-plus goals in 3 seasons with the Wild. On top of that, he has two seasons left on a $5.06M contract AND is over-37. Oh yeah. He’s got that pesky no-trade clause as well.
The candidates most likely to be traded are Dainius Zubrus, who is coming off of a solid playoff performance and a solid performance in a season filled with injuries (27 points in 51 games). He’s got some value, but the question would be would the team be willing to trade him? If I’m making the decision, I’m not so sure unless there’s no other way.
You’ve also got defensemen Colin White and Bryce Salvador. While White has a no-trade clause, both players make either $3 million or just under and there is no shortage of teams looking for defense. With young players like Matt Corrente and Tyler Eckford waiting in the wings, it may make sense for the Devils to make a move that involves one or both of these two d-men.
Finally, you’ve got the player that I’m sure no one in Newark really wants to admit could be on the block – Patrik Elias. Of every single player on their roster, Elias probably has the most value other than Travis Zajac and Zach Parise (and rest assured, they’re not going anywhere). At 34, he’s still got some tread left on the tires and he’s still a productive player. Again, there’s a no-trade clause much like the rest of their likely tradable players, but Elias is the player that would likely bring the most interest.
Either way, Lamoriello has a lot of thinking ahead of him to figure out how he’s going to shape his roster and he’s going to have to make some hard decisions in order to do so. Do you ask a player to wave his NTC? Do you part with your captain? Do you trade a recently signed player?
There are a lot of questions and the team is going to need answers very soon.
*****
Now, onto the CBA.
I’ll admit, this is probably one of the things I understand the least about the NHL. Here is the text from the press release:
NEW YORK/TORONTO (September 4, 2010) – The National Hockey League Players’ Association and National Hockey League today announced an agreement that will implement new rules governing the parameters of long-term contracts and how they are valued within the NHL Salary Cap System.
As part of the agreement, the NHL will register the contract between the New Jersey Devils and Ilya Kovalchuk that was filed with the League on August 27, 2010. The NHL also will terminate its circumvention investigations into the contracts signed in 2009 by Marian Hossa of the Chicago Blackhawks, Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks, Marc Savard of the Boston Bruins and Chris Pronger of the Philadelphia Flyers.
Under the terms of the agreement, the new rules will apply only to long-term contracts, defined as those with terms of five years or longer, and only to contracts executed after September 4, 2010. The new rules apply to contracts signed between now and the end of the CBA, as well as all contracts signed that begin in the 2012-13 season. The parties have agreed that the new rules do not automatically carry over into a new CBA.
For the purpose of Salary Cap calculations, any long-term contract that extends past a player’s 41st birthday will be valued and accounted for in two ways: The compensation for all seasons that do not include or succeed the player’s 41st birthday will be totaled and divided by the number of those seasons to determine the annual average value (AAV) charged against the team’s Cap for those seasons. In all subsequent seasons, the team’s Cap charge will be the actual compensation paid to the player in that season (or seasons, as appropriate).
Additionally, in any long-term contract that averages more than $5.75 million for the three highest-compensation seasons, the following rule shall apply: Solely to determine its value for purposes of the Salary Cap, a player’s compensation for any season in which he is age 36, 37, 38, 39 and/or 40 shall be valued at a minimum of $1 million.
“We’re pleased to be able to establish clearly-defined rules for these types of contracts going forward and just as happy we can turn the page on uncertainties relating to several other existing contracts,” NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said. “From start to finish of this multi-week process we were able to work closely and cooperatively with representatives of the Players’ Association, who shared our belief that the creation of definitive rules and guidelines in this area would be beneficial to everyone – Clubs and players alike.”
“We are pleased to finalize an agreement which ends the League’s circumvention investigations and also establishes rules on long-term contracts that will provide players, their certified agents and general managers clarity for the negotiation of new contracts,” said Roland Lee, Director of Salary Cap/Marketplace & Associate Counsel for the NHLPA. “Turning the page on this process is something that will benefit all parties involved.”
So, basically it boils down to the fact that the cap hit will be divided into two parts. The Pre-41 and post-41 hits. In addition, the minimum salary for a player over 35 in these long-term contracts is $1 million, but only in the purposes of calculating the cap hit.
So, what this would do to these new “lifetime” contracts is small, but still interesting. Roberto Luongo’s cap hit would be raised from $5.33M to about $6.2M while Marian Hossa’s would be raised from $5.275M to $6.13M.
In the end, this is not necessarily going to stop these contracts altogether (which I believe would be in the best interest of the league), but this will help stop the circumvention to an extent.
General Managers are going to find ways to work the cap in their favor. As long as the cap hit is an average and not what the player is getting paid that particular season, GMs are still going to find ways to bring their cap hit down. But this could be at least a step in the right direction.
As Greg Wyshynski posted on Puck Daddy, it’s a little hard for me to accept that the NHL put up a fight over these type of contracts only to “grandfather” these contracts in, but I guess you take what you can get and it does, effectively, take these types of contracts away going forward.
Wild Nation’s Ridiculously Early Season Previews: The Southeast Division
Last time, we took a look at the Northeast Division but, today, in our final division preview of the Eastern Conference, our view moves south to the division that is considered by many to be the weakest in the East.
Those perceptions, however, look as if they may be changing. Let’s take a look, shall we?
Atlanta Thrashers – Atlanta found themselves second in the Southeast last season, despite their tumultuous season that saw them deal superstar winger Ilya Kovalchuk to the New Jersey Devils for a king’s ransom.
Their biggest off season change, in my opinion, was the insertion of Rick Dudley into the general manager position, moving former GM Don Waddell to a more administrative position.
The move has already started to pay dividends, as Dudley has brought in the likes of Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Ben Eager and Brent Sopel from Chicago as well as Chris Mason to share the net with Ondrej Pavelec.
Let’s be clear. The additions of Byfuglien and the like make the Thrashers a better team, but don’t necessarily make them a contender.
The Thrashers are still missing that gamebreaker that they had in Kovalchuk, though Little, Bergfors or Kane could easily turn into that. The mantra for this team for this off season has seemed to be “get harder to play against,” and for the first time in a long time it looks like there is a distinct plan in place to mold this team into a contender.
The bottom line is that the Thrashers are getting better and they’re heading in the right direction – they just might have a little farther to go.
Carolina Hurricanes – The question that everyone is going to be wondering about this Hurricanes team is whether they were the team that started the season so miserably or that ended their season so strong.
Injuries hampered the ‘Canes last season and Staal, Ward and Ruutu should be healthy and ready to go this season and their defense will be anchored by four familiar faces. If Cam Ward is healthy, this is a team that could really do some damage in the Southeast.
The ‘Canes have been relatively quiet in free agency, compared to their Atlanta counterparts, but have brought back Anton Babchuk who played last season in the KHL.
What Carolina is counting on is the growth of their younger players. The losses of veteran leaders Ray Whitney and Rob Brind’amour are both big for the team but their top-six could be considered relatively in tact as Chad LaRose or Brandon Sutter will step in to the spot vacated by Whitney.
Let us not forget that this is still relatively the same team that marched to the Conference finals two seasons ago. The ‘Canes have a good team and, if everything lines up right they could be heading back to the playoffs.
Right now, however, there are too many question marks to say that this is a playoff team, but all the parts are there for a successful season.
Florida Panthers – It would be easy to write off the Panthers as being in a re-building phase of their franchise’s history, but the fact of the matter is that they’ve been re-building now since the trade of Roberto Luongo and they have been surprisingly competitive the last few seasons.
Their immediate strength is in net with goaltender Tomas Vokoun coming off the two best seasons of his career.
In front of him, they have a group of solid, but not flashy defensemen anchored by Bryan McCabe and Dennis Wideman. Youngsters Keaton Ellerby and Dmitry Kulikov give some hope for the future on the blueline and will get some valuable ice time this season.
Where this team will struggle is up front. David Booth and Stephen Weiss lead a corps of forwards that are unimpressive, to say the least. The team lost its second leading scorer last season and did little to nothing to replace him. The additions of Steve Bernier and Michael Grabner will help, but not enough to help a team that was 28th in goals for last season.
If the Panthers are going to be successful, it’s going to be on the strength of their defense and their goaltending and, in an offensively powered Southeast Division; that could pose a problem.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Like the Thrashers, the Lightning’s best move could have been the hiring of Steve Yzerman as their General Manager.
Yzerman has already made some big moves for the team, trading for Simon Gagne, as well as signing Pavel Kubina, Dominic Moore and Dan Ellis.
The trade for Gagne is a huge addition to the squad as he gives the team a legitimate fourth scoring threat if he is healthy, and also allows them the ability to break up the big-three without losing anything. Once Steve Downie is re-signed (he is a Restricted Free Agent), the Bolts will have themselves one of the most potent top-six forwards in the league.
On top of that, the additions of Dominic Moore and Sean Bergenheim give this team two players that may not be top-six forwards, but that are capable of logging powerplay time and pitching in offensively as well.
But offense may not be this team’s downfall. With 260 goals against last season, they desperately needed an upgrade on defense and in net and Dan Ellis and Pavel Kubina represent that.
While Kurtis Foster had a remarkable season last year, it was obvious that he wasn’t exactly what the team needed. Kubina, however, gives them another top-pairing defenseman that is both comfortable in the city and is able to log even strength, powerplay and penalty kill time. The team has yet to re-sign Paul Ranger, but once that is accomplished, this could be a very solid defense.
But, by far the biggest upgrade is in net. The team will have Dan Ellis and Mike Smith sharing the net – something that they hope will benefit both goaltenders, who have struggled at times in starting roles.
With an improved defense, however, they hope that Ellis and Smith will be protected enough to find themselves as contenders again and, with this offense, they could most certainly be that.
Washington Capitals – Let’s be honest here – this is the easiest pick to call.
The Caps will be good. They’ll be first in the division and back in the playoffs.
How’s that for a bold prediction?
In all seriousness, though, the Capitals will be a very good team again this season. They will score goals and they will win games. But will they be Cup contenders?
As with many other teams, the answer to that question lies in goal.
Semyon Varlamov and Michael Neuvirth are taking over the duties in goal and it’s going to be interesting to see if these two young netminders can handle the pressure of what will be expected of them. Both have shown flashes, but it is still uncertain as to whether or not they can go the distance for the team.
Meanwhile, the team is still built to win. They haven’t lost any important cogs on either offense or defense and, in fact, should see both Karl Alzner and John Carlson improve on defense to make for a very potent blue line unit. In fact, the Caps even have some cap room to make improvements throughout the season or even before the season starts.
And that is a scary thought for the other four Southeast teams wanting to take over their crown.
Predictions
So, how will this conference break down? Let’s take a look:
1) Washington Capitals
2) Tampa Bay Lightning
3) Carolina Hurricanes
4) Atlanta Thrashers
5) Florida Panthers
As for the playoffs, I see the Capitals and Lightning making the playoffs and the Hurricanes and/or Thrashers again being a bubble team. The Panthers, as is likely expected, will be on the outside looking in as they build towards a Stanley Cup contending team.
Up Next: The Central Division
Wild and NHL Musings
Well, a lot has happened since last we met, so I figured I’d better just tackle the slew of it in one fell swoop. I’ll be looking at some NHL news too, but mostly Wild news.
Before we get into my Wild musings, let’s take a look at the big story to hit in the NHL today.
Arbitrator Voids Kovalchuk’s Contract
This is going to be a very contentious topic, methinks, so I’ll just dive headfirst into it.
Arbitrator Richard Bloch has ruled against the NHLPA’s grievance and upheld the NHL’s decision to reject Ilya Kovlachuk’s 17-year, $102 million contract with the New Jersey Devils.
One reason for the rejection that Bloch cited was Kovalchuk’s age at the end of the contract:
“Kovalchuk is 27 years old, and the agreement contemplates his playing until just short of his 44th birthday. … Currently, only one player in the league has played past 43 and, over the past 20 years only 6 of some 3400 players have played to 42.”
Bloch also stated that this could be grounds for rejection of such contracts as Roberto Luongo, Marc Savard and Chris Pronger. Also mentioned was the contract of Marian Hossa though, as Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo’s Puck Daddy blog states, it seems unlikely that the league would target Hossa’s contract for rejection as he has already played a season under the new contract.
Now, I first need to say that I don’t believe that there is any precedent for this decision. The notion that Kovalchuk is any less likely to be playing the game at the age of 44 as Hossa is at the age of 42 is, in my mind, absurd.
Yes, only one player has played past the age of 43, but citing that Hossa is more likely to play until 42 because six out of 3,400 players have done so is ridiculous.
That being said, I think that the arbitrator made the absolute right decision in this case, siding with the NHL.
Yes, there was no precedent to do so but the NHL had to stand up and make a stand on this issue at some point. They didn’t have guts to do it with Hossa or Pronger or Luongo, but finally found it in themselves to do so and it’s long past time that they did.
Teams are going to continue to try and exploit this loophole in the CBA, but at least this gives the NHL some basis for when to say when on future contracts.
Madden Signs With Minnesota
Don’t worry. He’s not going to try to sell you any tough actin’ Tinactin. He won’t say Boom! (at least not all the time) and he won’t give you some overly complicated explanation about some overly simple football concept.
Congratulations! You are number one million to make that joke about John Madden!
Alright. All kidding aside, I love the signing of Madden. He’s a strong two-way player and the type of player that the Wild has been sorely missing since the retirement of Wes Walz.
Look. Madden’s not going to score 20 goals (he’s done so just twice in his 11 season career), nor is he going to star on our top two lines. What he will do, however, is give the Wild another reliable penalty killer, a checking-line forward capable of shutting down teams’ top lines and a leader on and off the ice.
What this also does is create competition at the center position.
Here is our depth chart at center, as it stands (and, to one Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy and Two-Line Pass, this is off the top of my head and without looking at a roster). Those in bold and italics are the ones guaranteed a roster spot:
Mikko Koivu
Matt Cullen
John Madden
Kyle Brodziak
James Sheppard
Casey Wellman
Colton Gillies
So, what you can see here are seven centers for four full-time positions. It’s not out of the realm of reason that one of the four (most likely Brodziak) would be moved to the wing, so you essentially have three players vying for one position.
In my opinion, the player for the job is Colton Gillies.
Gillies is fleet of foot, he’s big, he’s physical and he has demonstrated a limited offensive upside. This would allow Wellman a year of development in the AHL and Sheppard one to get his confidence about him as well.
After the way Gillies performed in camp last season, I thought he would be a shoo-in for the big squad, but he instead struggled through a season in the AHL. It may be time for him to show what he can do.
What About Butch?
I had a friend ask me a question the other day about whether or not I thought Bouchard would play this season and, if he did, would he even be effective.
I thought it a good enough question to stick it into here.
First question, will Butch play this season?
My answer to that is most definitely yes.
It might not be at the beginning of the season, but he will play. He’s started exercising, he’s lifting weights and he’s feeling better, so whether it’s in October or in December, he will play this season.
The next part of the question, however, is the most important. Will he be effective?
My personal opinion is that he will.
One of the biggest hindrances in returning from a concussion is getting used to the contact once again. There’s trepidation when going into the corners, when going to the tough areas on the ice.
That’s also the biggest problem I’ve always had with Bouchard, as well.
He’s rarely gone into the corners and rarely gone into the tough areas on the ice. Bouchard is, primarily, a perimeter player. He is at his best when creating plays on the outside for players going to the net and a concussion shouldn’t change this.
This isn’t to say that Bouchard won’t have a readjustment period of some sort when he returns, but I think he will largely come back as the same player that he was before which is both a blessing and a curse for Wild fans.
Some Early Postseason Playoff Thoughts
Heading into the end of the first week of playoff hockey, there are some surprises and some not quite so surprising surprises. In both cases, my brain is running over with thoughts of mine that are just begging to be shared. So…Here you have it, in a neat and tidy bulleted format. Enjoy!
- When is Marty Brodeur (or his coaches, for that matter) going to realize that it probably isn’t a smart idea to play 1,382 to the fifth power games during the regular season? I get that he’s good. I mean, the guy is arguably the best goalie ever to play the game and his ability to play 70+ games in a season has saved the Devils tons of money on a passable back up. The problem? By the time it comes down to it, in the playoffs, the guy is flat out gassed. Even though Sunday’s debacle against Philly was by no means Marty’s fault, might it not be wise to, say, give the guy a break every once in a while during the regular season? I’m sure it wouldn’t harm their playoff standing THAT much.
- And continuing with my mental diarrhea about the Flyers/Devils series, this is a perfect example of what happens when a team under intense pressure and expectations meet up with a team with zero pressure or expectations. Don’t get me wrong. I picked the Devils to win this series and I stand by that prediction (at least until the Flyers are on the cusp of closing out the series—I then reserve the right to break both ankles and possibly a rib or two diving off of the bandwagon) but right now the Devils are playing like they’ve got a two-ton weight on their shoulders while the Flyers have realized that they’re lucky just to be there.
- Speaking of pressure vs. no pressure, what the heck is up with the Caps?! I get that their defense hasn’t necessarily been stellar, but it’s been an absolute train wreck through two games and that’s being very, very generous—Mike Green in particular. Now I’ve always been a fan of Greener. Personally, I’ve never thought he was as bad as everyone claims defensively. There are definite holes in his defensive game, but I’ve never really seen him to be Skoula-esque in that department. But, so far, in these playoffs he has been exactly as bad as everyone claims he is defensively and there have been a handful of Montreal’s goals so far that were a direct result of this ineptitude.
- Sticking with the Caps/Habs series, does anyone else thing that Scott Gomez’s “What the hell were you thinking?” moment might have awakened a sleeping giant in the Caps? They looked like a completely different team after that fight. As in, they realized “Oh yeah, we’re good!” It certainly hasn’t hurt that Jaroslav Halak suddenly turned into the Michael Jackson of goaltending—meaning that he has a glove on his left hand for no apparent reason (I swear to God, this is the last time you’ll hear me use this line, though this time it is very, very appropriate).
- And, as far as the Rumble in the Capital between Gomez and Poti, I’ll say it once again. Gomer! What the hell were you thinking?? I understand what Gomez was trying to do—I truly do. But you’re the team’s number one center. If you’re going to drop the mitts in the playoffs, you darn well better take on someone that is going to have as large of an effect on the Caps when they’re missing for five minutes as you will have on your team. Instead, he chooses Tom Poti. Mr. Gomez, your check from the Capitals is in the mail.
- This next topic is going to be contentious, and I know it. I’m going to throw myself out there as a piñata for all of the Pittsburgh faithful, but it needs to be said. HOLY ANDY SUTTON! Look. I’ve always felt that Sutton is a great player to have on the roster……………….Of the other team, but that hit on Jordan Leopold was spec-freaking-tacular. I feel bad for Leopold, because I truly like him as a player and I hope that he’s going to recover fully from it, but my GOD. I think Sutton may have momentarily detached his brain stem from the rest of his body. Keeping that in mind, the thing I liked most about this hit? IT WAS CLEAN. Yes, Mike Rupp, I’m looking directly at you. I can understand where people can think that Sutton got his elbow up, but I stand by my assertion that it was a clean hit. His elbow, while it may have been high, never actually made contact with Leopold. This was entirely a case of Jordan just having his head down at the wrong time and getting hit by a lumbering defenseman with an entire zone’s worth of built up speed heading at him. And, if you want a firsthand account by an expert of exactly how that feels, check this out.
- I initially picked Ottawa to win this one in seven because they came into the playoffs hot and, when they’re hot they’re REEEEEEEEEEALLY hot. While I’m not yet backing away from that pick, I probably should have realized that they came into the playoffs hot…Meaning that they were due for the obligatory cold streak that ultimately follows.
- It sounds like Thomas Vanek is going to be out for game three of the Bruins/Sabres series for Buffalo. There’s only one piece of news that could be worse for Buffalo, and that would be if Ryan Miller was going to miss game three. Also, I’d like to make a request to any television station covering any part of this series. Please, for the love of God, STOP SHOWING THE SLASH!
- It really shouldn’t be any surprise that Boston is competitive in this series. They were one of the hotter teams in the NHL heading into the playoffs and we all know that defense and goaltending wins championships (we’re looking at you Washington). Don’t forget that this is a Boston team that was the class of the Northeast for the last two seasons (sans Kessel). The playoffs are a brand new season and anything can happen. But mostly, I just want to be able to scream LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH at the top of my lungs.
- On to the West now, if you hear any gagging, it’s coming from San Jose. In all seriousness, though, I can’t imagine how much pressure is on the Sharks in their locker room right now. Just like with the Devils and the Caps, it’s a case of pressure vs. no pressure, except for this time magnified by 10-million. Dan Boyle’s gaffe in their last game didn’t help any, as it pretty much epitomized San Jose’s luck in the playoffs over the last few seas—decade.
- Even though San Jose is doing their yearly choke, it shouldn’t take anything away from how brilliant Craig Anderson has been in this series. If the Avs are going to win it’s going to be on his back, and right now he looks like freaking Atlas balancing the world on his shoulders. To shut out the Sharks is no small feat, but to do it on 50-plus saves? One, you have to tip your hat to that performance and two, you have to wonder where the hell the Colorado defensemen were for those 50-plus shots.
- Did it surprise anyone to see the Blackhawks rebound and respond to an embarrassing loss last night? The only thing that really surprised me, after seeing the looks on the ‘Hawks faces after that loss, was that last night’s game wasn’t an absolute blood letting. Even little Patty Kane’s mullet looked pissed after that one. It was a great rebound performance for the ‘Hawks against an opponent that, truthfully, shouldn’t really give them a lot of trouble. Then again, the Predators “shouldn’t really be in the playoffs” either…So I’m guessing that this series is going to be a classic.
- How good are these two young Finnish netminders? Believe me folks. Antti Niemi and Pekka Rinne are the real deal for sure. They’re both young and just entering their prime years. What’s that mean for us? That this is going to be one fantastic series as far as goaltending is concerned. In fact, Rinne was one of the biggest reasons that last night’s loss WASN’T a blood letting by the ‘Hawks. The thing I want to know, though, is how I can get an NHL team to pay me $5.5 million to be a spectator. Anyone know?
- If there’s anyone that doesn’t think that the Phoenix/Detroit series isn’t one of the most intriguing of the playoffs, they haven’t been paying attention. It’s essentially the NHL’s franchise against the NHL’s model franchise and, guess what? So far, the NHL’s franchise is winning the battle. The reason why? They’ve come out and skated like they have a pack of rabid Coyotes on their tails. They’ve come out and skated hard, played physical and won battles and, if you’ve been watching the series so far, it’s no wonder why they’re ahead. They’ve flat out out-worked a team that prides itself on its work ethic.
- Detroit might be kicking themselves for winning that couple of extra games now. On the other hand, they showed in Game 2 what they’re capable of if they get rolling sooooooo…Yeah, they’re probably not kicking themselves. If they’re going to win, though, they need better play from their top players. So far, Zetterberg and Lidstrom are the only ones who have shown up to play and contribute on a regular basis.
- How about those Los Angeles Kings? I don’t know if anyone was giving them a snowball’s chance in somewhere really, really warm to do anything these playoffs, but they not only don’t look out of place…They look goooooooood! Jonathan Quick hasn’t looked out of place opposite Roberto Luongo in this one and the Kings are doing more than hanging with the Canucks. If the Kings keep up this inspired play, this could easily be the series of the first round.
- The best part of watching this series is watching the speed at which these two teams play. On one hand, you’ve got the youthful exuberance of the Kings who don’t realize that a) they’re supposed to be nervous because it’s the playoffs and b) they’re supposed to be a less talented team and on the other hand, you’ve got the savvy of the Canucks, led by the Sedin twins who continue to ply their trade by making six opposing players look silly all at the same time.
That’s all for me today folks! If you’re checking this out on Bleacher Report, make sure to check in to Wild Nation tonight for a live blog of the Kings/Canuckleheads game tonight at 9 p.m. Central Time. If you’re checking this out on Wild Nation, make sure you’re back as we’ll have friends of the blog, Justin Bourne and Ms. Conduct with us!
The Rise and Fall of the Lifetime Contract?
The NHL needs to institute “Term Limits.”
No…I’m not talking about for its long lamented commissioner. I’m not talking about for the coaches or general managers. I’m talking about for the players.
Okay. So maybe term limit isn’t exactly the right turn of phrase. But the concept remains. These “lifetime contracts” are getting absolutely ridiculous. Sure…They’re a great way to fit your superstar players under the cap. But, honestly, do they seem a bit shortsighted to anyone else?
Consider Chris Pronger and his $6.25M cap hit.
Not a bad deal for a superstar defenseman, right? And look at this! You’re going to have him for $525K per for the last two years of the contract. Talk about a bargain!
But wait…Hold on. If he decides to play those last two years…You’ll be paying him $525K…But be on the hook for $6.25M? Well that doesn’t sound very good. But, that’s Chris Pronger. It’s a unique situation.
Okay…So Henrik Zetterberg. There’s a good contract. $6.083M cap hit. That’s a great deal for a player of Hank’s caliber. But what about when you’re paying him $1M per year in the twilight of his career, yet still on the hook for just over $6M?
Sure, these contracts look great now. But how about when a player doesn’t have enough tread on the tires to live up to the contract?
Take Brendan Shanahan, for example. Give him one of those front loaded contracts back in the 2000-01 season. It looks fantastic when he’s averaging 60-70 points a season and 30-40 goals. But after a 73 game, 46 point performance? What about a 34 game, 14 point performance? It begins to look a lot worse.
Or what about Sergei Fedorov? Give him one of those contracts back in the same season and it’s looking great when he’s putting up 30-goal, 60-point seasons. Then he dips down to average 15-goal, 40-point seasons. Great for the beginning, pretty poor for the end.
The bottom line is that these long-term contracts will only benefit these teams for so long. Eventually, however, the production of the majority of these players will begin to fall off. Sure, there will be the odd player that has a career like Joe Sakic has had, whose production stays consistent right up until the end of his career, but the majority of these players? By the end of their careers, they won’t be worth the cap hit — most of them nowhere near. Sure…In 2013, Pavel Datsyuk will likely be as productive as he is now. But will Henrik Zetterberg in 2020? What about Vincent Lecavalier in 2019? I highly doubt it.
Don’t get me wrong. These contracts are great for the players…But they’re horrible for the NHL. What’s more…They’re horrible for the fans.
Why?
Take a look at this. The top free agents for 2010? Nicklas Lidstrom, Roberto Luongo and Ilya Kovalchuk. If you think that any of these three won’t be locked up (or in Lidstrom’s case, retired) by then, you’re crazy. After that? The crop is still decent…Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Nabokov, Olli Jokinen…All good players, all potential game changers…But bona fide 100% pure superstars, they aren’t.
In 2011? You’ve got Brad Richards, Zdeno Chara and Joe Thornton…But there isn’t a UFA under the age of 31 until you get to Patrice Bergeron and, no offense to him, but I hardly think that teams will be knocking down his door.
2012? A class headlined by Chris Drury, Ryan Smyth and Brian Rafalski.
Finally, in 2013, you get Sidney Crosby, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nathan Horton, all under 30…But does anyone really think that four out of the five of them will be available?
Talk about nothing for fans to get excited about. Let me tell you that, if in 2012 I’m getting excited about the possibilities of the Minnesota Wild signing a 35 year old Chris Drury or a 36 year old Ryan Smyth, I should be committed.
The bottom line is that these long-term contracts are a plague on the NHL. The more long-term contracts get signed, the more teams will, not only handcuff themselves, but handcuff the league’s ability to spread parity throughout. Not only that, but it harms the fans as well. A lack of marquee free agents during the off season can kill any momentum that the league has with the fans.
The CBA is expiring soon and it’s looking more and more like there could be another labor dispute looming. But one thing is for certain. In the new CBA, the NHL needs to impose some sort of limitation on the length of contracts…Not only for the entertainment of the fans, but for the long term health of the league as well.
Wild's Hopes Dwindling
The Wild got an all important point last night in their overtime defeat to the Vancouver Canucks. The problem? They needed to make it two points badly.
Their desperation certainly showed in the game, as they outshot the Canucks by a margin of 34-19 and held Vancouver to zero shots in the third period. The Wild were buzzing all night long and peppered Roberto Luongo with shot after shot after shot. The only problem was that they ran into Roberto Luongo. Luongo was dazzling last night, stoning the Wild at every turn. That and some good fortune for the Canucks was the difference in this game.
With the loss, the Wild’s “tragic number” has shrunk to 7 according to nhlplayoffrace.com and the team’s chances at the post season continue to shrink. According to Hockey Reference’s playoff probability chart, the Wild now have just a 12.8% chance of making the playoffs and are being projected to finish with roughly 86 points.
The advantage for the Wild, however, is that the remainder of the teams directly in front of them play the majority of their remaining games on the road. While the Wild will need to take care of things on their own end, this certainly bodes well for the team if they can take care of business. The key part, however, is taking care of business. Something that this team has not been able to do since the beginning of the season.
To add another wrench into the situation, the St. Louis Blues hold a game in hand over just about everyone around them.
What this equals (other than an enormous headache if you’re trying to figure out every situation) is that the Wild cannot control their own destiny, even if they win out. It paints a pretty grim picture for the franchise; however, missing the playoffs could be the best thing that could happen for the Wild. Why you ask? Well, here’s why:
- Draft for Success. The Wild started re-stocking their defensive corps in last season’s draft. With Anthony Aiello, Tyler Cuma and Justin Falk likely playing in the AHL next season, the Wild’s defensive prospects are looking better than they have in a while. Meanwhile, however, their forwards are getting thin. Cal Clutterbuck is the most notable of the forwards that has made the big squad and Peter Olvecky is getting a good, long look as well. What does this mean? Well, it means that the Wild doesn’t have a great wealth of top forward prospects. But, the good news is that this is a draft that is very deep in the first round at forward. The Wild will certainly end up with a top 15 pick if they miss the playoffs, and it is certainly conceivable that they could end up with a top 10 pick if the lottery goes right. Two of the three NHL.com mock drafts had the Wild picked to snag the University of Minnesota’s Jordan Schroeder with their first pick if this is the case, while My NHL Draft has the Wild slated to pick Dmitry Kulikov from Drummondville (a defenseman) with their first pick. Meanwhile, NHL DraftSite has the Wild slated to take Landon Ferraro at 12th. The bottom line is that the Wild needs some top tier talent at forward. The picks are at 11th, 10th and 12th respectively; however, if you look at the ISS Rankings, you can see that there are currently only three defensemen slated in the top ten. If the Wild have the number ten pick, there’s no doubt in my mind that they will use it on a forward.
- Coaching Turnover. Mike Russo stated in his blog that he would place the odds at Lemaire returning for next season at about 20-80, meaning 20% that he would return and 80% that he would retire. I would go even further than that. Lemaire has seemed frustrated much of this season and no longer appears to be having any sort of fun behind the bench; something that he was even doing through the team’s maddening inconsistency last season. As much as I love Lemaire, I do think that a coaching change would behoove this team next season. A change of pace could be exactly what it takes to get this team (which I still believe is a good one) back on track.
- Do Something, Please. After two seasons of making the playoffs only to find a first round exit, Doug Risebrough was under immense pressure to round out the team and come back with another contender. He did not. After a year of missing the playoffs, he will be under even greater pressure to do something. He has definite assets that he can barter with at the draft and before free agency; however, he would be best served to make a very large splash and bring some players onto the team that will take this team to the next level.
All in all, the Wild can learn a lot from this season. If healthy, this team could be a force to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, they have not been fully healthy all season long. If the playoffs are missed (which I believe they will be), this team has an interesting off season ahead of them and some big decisions. They key to how this team comes into next season will be how they respond going forward.
