Gameday Thread – Game 39 – Wild @ Kings

It’s amazing how much difference a couple months time makes.

After a 3-9-0 start, the Wild were looking to be in the running for the Taylor Hall Sweepstakes. The turnaround that the team has made the season, however, has been nothing short of miraculous.

After their horrific start, the Wild are 16-7-3 and were 9-4-0 during the month of December and now are just four points back from the odds on favorite to win the Northwest Division this season, the Calgary Flames, and third place in the division.

More importantly, they are just four points back from a playoff spot.

The combination of new blood being injected into the system and the old blood learning the new system has proven to be a potent mix and the team is looking poised for a solid run at the Stanley Cup Playoffs after missing out last season.

They come into Los Angeles tonight with a record number of wins for the month of December and are looking to increase on that total against a very good and very surprising Los Angeles Kings team.

The Kings are third in the Pacific Division and fifth in the Western Conference despite slumping of late. A testament to how good the Pacific Division has gotten, the Kings dropped from first in the division to third after a stretch of two losses and eight games off in between.

Lineups
The Wild will be short one of their top checking players, as Chuck Kobasew is going to be on the shelf for about 4-to-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. While his injury will certainly hurt the team, it is possible that it may have opened up a spot for Petr Sykora to return to the lineup sooner than hoped.

Sykora is travelling with the team on their two-game road swing but has not yet gotten approval to play. If that changes, though, the Wild could see a big addition to their lineup.

Barring Sykora’s return, though, here are the forward lines for the Wild as predicted by Wild.com:

Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen
Nolan-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Latendresse-Ebbett-Havlat
Sheppard-Brodziak-Boogaard

Now, while Belanger’s line is listed as the team’s second line here, it’s important to note that the Kings will likely see a large dose of Ebbett’s line early and often. They have been one of the hotter lines on the team since Latendresse and Ebbett have both gotten healthy and that could bode well for the Wild. In addition, the injury to Kobasew might just give Sheppard yet another chance to prove himself. He’s played much better of late, but he needs to step his game up another level if he wants to continue to find playing time as players begin returning from injury.

On defense, Clayton Stoner has been an absolute revelation for the Wild and looks to have stolen John Scott’s spot from him. In his five games since being called up, Stoner has a pair of assists, an even rating, a couple fights and is averaging just under 13 minutes per game. His solid skating ability and his willingness to throw his body around has quickly endeared him to Wild fans.

Wild.com lists the defensive pairings as follows:

Zanon-Zidlicky
Stoner-Johnsson
Hnidy-Schultz

The one thing that I like the most about these pairings is that it gives the Wild a 100% legitimate shutdown pairing in Hnidy and Schultz. But what’s more is that the defensively responsible Stoner and Zanon give both Zidlicky and Johnsson chances to step up into the play a little bit more often—something that benefitted the Wild in their 4-3 defeat of the Blues on Saturday.

There was a break between the games, so in net we’re most likely going to see Niklas Backstrom again. Backstrom has been absolutely fantastic in his last eight games, with six wins and a 1.87 goals-against average.

What to Watch For
The Wild have forward on their team that is white hot right now, and he’s not who you’d think.

Guillaume Latendresse has notched four goals in his last four games and six in 13 games with the Wild. In addition, in those 13 games, the Wild is 11-2-0 and is 4-0-0 when he scores a goal.

You don’t believe me? Do the math yourself.

G-Lat has quickly become an important cog in the Wild’s offense and is continuing to get more and more ice time with Minnesota.

The other key is going to be Martin Havlat. He was largely invisible on Saturday night against St. Louis, but has really snapped out of his early season slump with nine points in his last eight games with a plus-six rating.

He is going to be very important to the continued success of the Wild and the continued success of both Latendresse and Ebbett. He has shown great chemistry with both and this looks to be as bona fide a second line as the Wild has had all season long.

If these three start clicking in a game, watch out…It can be scary good.

Key(s) to the Game
Shoot the puck.

Both teams have great records when outshooting their opponents and tonight should be no different.

For the Wild, LA’s Jonathan Quick is a goalie that thrives on confidence. If they can get to him early, they can have success. But Quick gets better as the game goes on and as he gets more confidence, so hitting him early and often will be paramount for a Wild win.

For the Wild, stopping Anze Kopitar will also be a huge task. Kopitar is one of two Kings players in double digits for goals this season and is the only one who is active (Jarrett Stoll is out with a groin injury). If the Wild can stop Kopitar, they’re that much closer to stopping the Kings.

Kopitar, however, is not the only player that the Wild need to focus on. Ryan Smyth quickly asserted his presence in the Kings’ lineup this season before getting injured and has since returned to the lineup and will provide a huge boost for a Kings team playing without Stoll and Justin Williams.

The puck drops tonight at 9:30 CST and will be broadcast on Fox Sports North.

The Rise and Fall of the Lifetime Contract?

The NHL needs to institute “Term Limits.”

No…I’m not talking about for its long lamented commissioner.  I’m not talking about for the coaches or general managers.  I’m talking about for the players.

Okay.  So maybe term limit isn’t exactly the right turn of phrase.  But the concept remains.  These “lifetime contracts” are getting absolutely ridiculous.  Sure…They’re a great way to fit your superstar players under the cap.  But, honestly, do they seem a bit shortsighted to anyone else?

Consider Chris Pronger and his $6.25M cap hit.

Not a bad deal for a superstar defenseman, right?  And look at this!  You’re going to have him for $525K per for the last two years of the contract.  Talk about a bargain!

But wait…Hold on.  If he decides to play those last two years…You’ll be paying him $525K…But be on the hook for $6.25M?  Well that doesn’t sound very good.  But, that’s Chris Pronger.  It’s a unique situation.

Okay…So Henrik Zetterberg.  There’s a good contract.  $6.083M cap hit.  That’s a great deal for a player of Hank’s caliber.  But what about when you’re paying him $1M per year in the twilight of his career, yet still on the hook for just over $6M?

Sure, these contracts look great now.  But how about when a player doesn’t have enough tread on the tires to live up to the contract?

Take Brendan Shanahan, for example.  Give him one of those front loaded contracts back in the 2000-01 season.  It looks fantastic when he’s averaging 60-70 points a season and 30-40 goals.  But after a 73 game, 46 point performance?  What about a 34 game, 14 point performance?  It begins to look a lot worse.

Or what about Sergei Fedorov?  Give him one of those contracts back in the same season and it’s looking great when he’s putting up 30-goal, 60-point seasons.  Then he dips down to average 15-goal, 40-point seasons.  Great for the beginning, pretty poor for the end.

The bottom line is that these long-term contracts will only benefit these teams for so long.  Eventually, however, the production of the majority of these players will begin to fall off.  Sure, there will be the odd player that has a career like Joe Sakic has had, whose production stays consistent right up until the end of his career, but the majority of these players?  By the end of their careers, they won’t be worth the cap hit — most of them nowhere near.  Sure…In 2013, Pavel Datsyuk will likely be as productive as he is now.  But will Henrik Zetterberg in 2020?  What about Vincent Lecavalier in 2019?  I highly doubt it.

Don’t get me wrong.  These contracts are great for the players…But they’re horrible for the NHL.  What’s more…They’re horrible for the fans.

Why?

Take a look at this.  The top free agents for 2010?  Nicklas Lidstrom, Roberto Luongo and Ilya Kovalchuk.  If you think that any of these three won’t be locked up (or in Lidstrom’s case, retired) by then, you’re crazy.  After that?  The crop is still decent…Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Nabokov, Olli Jokinen…All good players, all potential game changers…But bona fide 100% pure superstars, they aren’t.

In 2011?  You’ve got Brad Richards, Zdeno Chara and Joe Thornton…But there isn’t a UFA under the age of 31 until you get to Patrice Bergeron and, no offense to him, but I hardly think that teams will be knocking down his door.

2012?  A class headlined by Chris Drury, Ryan Smyth and Brian Rafalski.

Finally, in 2013, you get Sidney Crosby, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nathan Horton, all under 30…But does anyone really think that four out of the five of them will be available?

Talk about nothing for fans to get excited about.  Let me tell you that, if in 2012 I’m getting excited about the possibilities of the Minnesota Wild signing a 35 year old Chris Drury or a 36 year old Ryan Smyth, I should be committed.

The bottom line is that these long-term contracts are a plague on the NHL.  The more long-term contracts get signed, the more teams will, not only handcuff themselves, but handcuff the league’s ability to spread parity throughout.  Not only that, but it harms the fans as well.  A lack of marquee free agents during the off season can kill any momentum that the league has with the fans.

The CBA is expiring soon and it’s looking more and more like there could be another labor dispute looming.  But one thing is for certain.  In the new CBA, the NHL needs to impose some sort of limitation on the length of contracts…Not only for the entertainment of the fans, but for the long term health of the league as well.

Luck 'o the Irish; Wild Win in OT

Last night’s game was anything but predictable.  Maybe it was the haze of inebriation that was hanging over the St. Paul crowd, many of whom had been going since 8 am.  Maybe it was a lone home game amongst a streak of road games.  Maybe it was just what comes with a division rivalry.  Any way you slice it, though, it was a very unpredictable game.

The puck was bouncing all over the place last night, for better or worse for both teams.  The puck hopped over sticks, under skates, between legs, off of heads.  In otherwords, the puck hopped everywhere that couldn’t result in a scoring chance.  So bizarre and unpredictable were the bounces that there was even one point in time where Colorado forward Ben Guite was sliding on his backside, trying to touch up on a delayed penalty call and he couldn’t get the stick on the puck, despite the fact that it was right at his feet.

The goals were no different.  With four goals scored in regulation, the hockey gods were certainly toying with goalies Niklas Backstrom and Peter Budaj.  For the first goal of the game, a Cody McLeod shot somehow managed to pop off of the ice, bounce off of defenseman Kurtis Foster’s helmet and land in the net, behind Backstrom.  The second saw a Martin Skoula slapshot get awkwardly re-directed by Stephane Veilleux off of the far post and past a sliding Budaj.  The third saw Ryan Smyth get a deflection past Backstrom; nothing odd until you add in the fact that the puck had already been deflected once; right onto Smyth’s stick by a defender.  The final goal of regulation saw Eric Belanger use absolutely every part of his body to keep the puck in the zone, before poking it to Dan Fritsche, who set up Nick Schultz on the halfboards whose shot got deflected past Budaj by Wojtek Wolski.

A strange game indeed.

No one can say that the Wild didn’t shoot the puck last night, however.  The team took a staggering 66 shots (29 of which made it on net) and controlled play for a good portion of the game (save for an 18 minute stretch where the team was outshot by Colorado 15-1).  The team’s lack of scoring was maddening at times; however, one can’t deny that they were trying their hardest to get pucks on net.  The Avs were simply doing a fantastic job of collapsing around and protecting Budaj and just not letting these shots through.

The win last night was especially inspiring for a few reasons.  First, it was Kurtis Foster’s first game back from injury and, I’ve got to say, he looked rusty by he looked good.  He showed why the team had missed him on the blueline, as he was a solid defensive presence all night long and he continued to fire pucks towards the net (though every single one of his shots ended up blocked).  The team broke a four game skid by coming from behind twice and putting down one of the league’s best shootout teams (the Avs were 9-1 in the shootout coming into this game).  Most importantly, the team did something that they haven’t done much since the beginning of the season.  They gutted out a win in a game that they did not play particularly well in. 

Despite not playing particularly well, the team got two points.  If the team makes the playoffs, one would hope that it would not be on the back of many more performances like this; but, in the grand scheme of things, no one will remember how the team played last night…Just the outcome.

Random Notes

• Cal Clutterbuck was one of the unsung heros of last night’s game.  He played his usual, high energy game, contributed four hits and had one of the best moves I’ve ever seen a player in a Wild sweater make.
• Niklas Backstrom looked fantastic in net last night.  Two fluke goals got by him, but otherwise he was spectacular.  He also reversed his shootout fortunes by stopping two of the best shootout men in the league in Milan Hejduk and Marek Svatos.
• It was great to see Fozzie back on the ice.  He hasn’t played much this season and has been rusty when he has, but I would love to see the Wild take a chance on him for next season with a one year contract.
• I continue to be impressed by the play of Dan Fritsche and Peter Olvecky.  Unfortunately, Olvecky will likely be a casualty upon the return of Marian Gaborik, but both players are playing absolutely fantastic and both seem primed to try to stick with the team past this season.  The biggest thing that stands out to me with these two is that they are both big, strong and both seem to have a nose for the net.
• Martin Skoula was quite possibly the Wild’s best defender last night.  He broke up multiple scoring chances by the Avs, played with a physical edge like we’re not used to out of him and created plays in the offensive zone.
• The Wild now sit just one point out of 8th (which will surely change by Friday) and are going into New Jersey to face one of the hottest teams in the league.  It’s going to be a tough game, but the Wild typically gets up for games against the top teams in the league, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.

Clutter-watch 2009
NHL Hits Record: 311 (Dustin Brown)
Clutterbuck: 290
Games Remaining: 12
Magic Number: 21

And remember…You can’t spell Calder without CAL!